The race for the college football playoffs is taking shape. After eight weeks, Georgia appears like a virtual lock, as does the Big Ten East winner, whether it be Ohio State or Michigan. Tennessee has a game against Georgia on the schedule, but the Volunteers and Crimson Tide could easily sneak in as the fourth playoff team. With the Week 9 college football betting odds available, bettors should act quickly to get the most value. Tailing the below early Week 9 college football betting picks and predictions should help bettors net a positive return. Let’s dive deeper with some college football picks.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Getting CLV also allows bettors to middle before the game even starts.
Week 9 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction: Buy Vols On This Off-Market Spread
The Volunteers scored a season-defining win over Alabama just two weeks ago. They’re now favored by two scores over SEC East rival Kentucky, who enters this game coming off a bye. While some bettors may be reticent to back the Volunteers, who should draw plenty of public action, against a potential first-round quarterback in Will Levis, a few signs point to value on Tennessee.
First is the current spread. The number varies wildly from -11.5 at FanDuel to -13 at DraftKings, with Pinnacle coming down firmly in the middle at -12.5. Bettors won’t be able to shave off a point by playing this spread over at FanDuel all week, so those looking to do so should get their action down quickly.
Second, Tennessee’s offense warrants sharp action. The Volunteers dismantled Alabama without their top boundary wide receiver, Cedric Tillman, who initially got surgery in hopes of returning in time for that matchup. If the Volunteers release any good news about Tillman’s status during the week, this spread could tick further in their favor. Further, the Volunteers are averaging the second-most points per game (47.7) and the third-most yards per play (7.2), while the Wildcats are averaging the 76th-most points per game (25.7) and the 72nd-most yards per play (5.5).
Lastly, Kentucky is a pathetic 6-13-1 against the spread when playing with a rest advantage under head coach Mark Stoops. Only four programs have covered less frequently in those situations through that span: Ole Miss, Kansas and Georgia. Stoops hasn’t turned things around in recent seasons, either — the Wildcats are 2-6-1 against the spread when playing with a rest advantage since 2018.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee -11.5 (-115) at FanDuel
TCU vs. West Virginia: Get Frogs Under the Key Number
Max Duggan and the TCU Horned Frogs nearly blew their unblemished season in a home game against Kansas State last week. But they didn’t — the talented quarterback engineered a dominant second-half comeback, and TCU’s defense kept Kansas State from scoring a single second-half point. TCU is now 5-1-1 against the spread this season and an impressive 2-0-1 against the spread on the road.
The Horned Frogs have already beaten a better team than the Mountaineers on the road: Kansas. The Horned Frogs fought a tight battle with the Jayhawks but ultimately closed with a touchdown lead to secure the push. With TCU opening as a touchdown road favorite over a worse Mountaineers team, bettors should act quickly before the line moves. Several books have already jacked TCU up to a 7.5-point favorite.
The hard numbers support this play as well. Duggan ranks sixth in passing efficiency, while West Virginia quarterback J.T. Daniels ranks an unconvincing 87th. His flaws as a passer were laid bare against Texas Tech last week, as he tossed three interceptions to one touchdown. The Mountaineers lost by 38. Also, TCU ranks sixth in points per game (42.3) and fifth in yards per play (7) — West Virginia ranks 50h (29.8) and 78th (5.3) in those metrics.
TCU vs. West Virginia: TCU -7 (-115) at FanDuel
Baylor vs. Texas Tech: Bears Getting Too Many Points
The Baylor Bears haven’t had the season they’d hoped for, but last week’s win over the Kansas Jayhawks was a step in the right direction. Quarterback Blake Shapen got healthy in time for the matchup and led the Bears to a dominant 25-point halftime lead and an eventual 12-point win. Running back Richard Reese delivered on the ground with 186 rushing yards as well.
But despite getting on the right track last week, the Bears opened as field-goal underdogs to Texas Tech. while Tech just dominated against West Virginia, the Red Raiders were coming off consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Their upset home win over Texas was impressive, but the Red Raiders just haven’t been consistent enough to warrant this much of an advantage over Baylor.
The Bears rank 32nd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), while the Red Raiders rank only 45th. Baylor’s 28th-ranked offense and 28th-ranked defense slot in ahead of both of Texas Tech’s units, which rank 45th and 35th, respectively. The Bears rank 36th in points per game (32.2) and 39th in yards per play (5.9), while the Red Raiders rank 37th in points per game (31.8) but a dismal 96th in yards per play (5).
Baylor vs. Texas Tech: Baylor +3 (-118) at FanDuel
