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Early College Football Picks and Predictions: Back Syracuse, Baylor & Tennessee

The college football playoff is fast approaching and one of the biggest games of the year, Tennessee-Georgia, is on tap this weekend. With the Week 10 college football betting odds already open, bettors should get their bets down quickly. Tailing these early Week 10 college football betting picks and predictions should offer a profitable return. Let’s dive deeper into some college football picks.

Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Getting CLV also allows bettors to middle before the game even starts. Last week’s column even went a perfect three-for-three!

Week 10 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions

Syracuse-Pittsburgh: Orange Getting Too Many Points

The Syracuse Orange took a brutal loss to Notre Dame the week after losing to Clemson. They have since opened as sizeable underdogs against Pittsburgh, which makes this a great buy-low spot. The Orange have been the much better football team all season, but news about starting quarterback Garrett Shrader has raised concerns about their ability to keep playing at this level.

The good news for Syracuse is that head coach Dino Babers only pulled Shrader for a pre-existing ailment. He got the full second half to rest up and he’ll also get the rest of this week to rehab it. Even if he can’t play, the Orange put up a fight late against Notre Dame and scored 17 points. Backup quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson completed half of his passes for 191 yards, a touchdown and a pick.

Syracuse ranks 24th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Their offense and defense both rank 39th. Although Syracuse’s offense ranks only 73rd in yards per play (5.4), they rank a solid 39th in yards per pass attempt and Shrader ranks 26th in passing efficiency. The defense also ranks 21st in yards allowed per play (4.8). In contrast, Pitt ranks 52nd in the FEI behind the 68th-ranked offense and 22nd-ranked defense. The offense ranks 50th in yards per play (5.7) but the defense ranks 37th (5.1). Quarterback Kedon Slovis has struggled and ranks a lowly 96th in passing efficiency. He should struggle against Syracuse’s defense.

This line should move in Syracuse’s favor if good news comes out about Shrader, but it shouldn’t move that far against them if he can’t play. The current line suggests books expect him to sit. ‘Cuse is up to an impressive 6-2 against the spread this season, while Pitt is a lowly 2-6 on the year and 1-4 at home. Back the Orange to cover a generous spread before it ticks under the key number of +3.

Syracuse-Pittsburgh Prediction: Syracuse +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Tennessee-Georgia: Volunteers a High-Value Underdog

The No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers are an impressive 6-2 against the spread. They scored an incredible home win over Alabama — the first in 15 years — and then took care of business against Kentucky. They have since opened as two-score underdogs to Georgia, but that doesn’t feel quite right. With Hendon Hooker leading the race for the Heisman Trophy, bettors should not stop backing the Volunteers quite yet.

The Volunteers aren’t perfect, but they have an exceptional offense that should scare the Bulldogs. They rank fifth in yards per play (7.1) and second in yards per pass attempt (10.9). Meanwhile, Georgia’s defense has taken hits on the injury front. Linebacker Nolan Smith, who leads the team in tackles for loss and sacks, suffered a separated shoulder. Safety Dan Jackson is also out for the year. The Bulldogs rank an impressive fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.8), but the Crimson Tide ranked sixth (5.3) when Hooker took them down.

Bettors should back the Volunteers until the wheels fall off. Getting them plus two scores feels like stealing, especially given the disparity between Hooker and Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett. Hooker’s stock has only been increasing and he now ranks second in passing efficiency. In contrast, Bennett’s stock has been falling. He just threw two picks against Florida and ranks only 38th in passing efficiency.

Tennessee-Georgia Prediction: Tennessee +9 (-110) at Caesars

Baylor-Oklahoma: Bears Will Limit the Sooners’ Offense

The Baylor Bears looked great against Texas Tech last weekend. They won by a dominant 28-point margin despite opening as field-goal underdogs. Quarterback Blake Shapen tossed for 211 yards and a score while completing 63.3% of his passes. But it was running back Richard Reese who stole the show. The star rusher gashed the Red Raiders for 148 yards and three scores. The Bears are now road underdogs again, this time to the struggling Oklahoma Sooners.

Baylor has been the better football team this year. The Bears rank 29th in the FEI and boast the 31st-ranked offense and 31st-ranked defense. The Sooners rank close behind in 33rd, but their 17th-ranked offense has gotten little help from the 74th-ranked defense. The Sooners rank a dismal 78th in yards allowed per play and 100th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.6). Texas and Bijan Robinson shredded them for 296 rushing yards just a few weeks ago. Reese should run wild on Saturday afternoon.

The Bears should limit the Sooners’ offense as well. Baylor’s defense ranks 29th in yards allowed per play (5) and 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.5). That bodes well for the Bears against Oklahoma’s offense, which has leaned on the ground game and ranks 21st in rushing play percentage (58.3%). The Sooners are a pathetic 1-3 against the spread at home this year and are unlikely to draw an enthusiastic crowd given their disappointing 5-3 record. Backing the Bears to cover on the road is one of the sharpest college football picks on the board.

Baylor-Oklahoma Prediction: Baylor +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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