Just as everyone expected after Week 1, the LSU Tigers have won the SEC West. They’ll face the Georgia Bulldogs in a tough SEC Championship game, and a win would cause headaches for the College Football Playoff committee. Even with the division races settled, this week features exciting SEC matchups including Florida-Vanderbilt, Georgia-Kentucky and Houston-East Carolina AAC contest. With the Week 12 college football betting odds already open, bettors should tail these early college football predictions and pick for a solid return.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Getting CLV also allows bettors to middle before the game even starts. Let’s dive deeper into some college football picks.
Week 12 College Football Predictions & Picks
Florida-Vanderbilt: Gators Not Getting Enough Credit
The Vanderbilt Commodores just got their first conference victory — and their first win against a ranked opponent — since 2019. They did it behind backup quarterback Mike Wright, no less. However, they now enter this week as 14-point home underdogs to the Florida Gators, and it’s a safe bet that they’ll fall back to Earth.
Vanderbilt lacks the defensive talent necessary to stop Florida’s offense. Clark Lea’s defense ranks 102nd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and 124th in yards allowed per play (6.6). The Commodores rank 124th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.6) and 113th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.9). Their defense allowed Wake Forest to win by 20, Ole Miss to win by 24, Alabama to win by 52 and Georgia to win by 55.
Vanderbilt has kept things close against inferior SEC opponents lately, but Florida is much better than Missouri and South Carolina. The Gators beat Mizzou by seven and South Carolina by 32. They rank 27th in yards per play (6.1), good for fifth in the SEC, and third in yards per rush attempt (6.8), good for first in the SEC.
Florida’s defense hasn’t played well this year, but it has started to improve. The Gators held the Gamecocks to just six points last week, and they held the Aggies to just 24 the week before. With Vanderbilt’s offense ranked 69th in the FEI and 71st in yards per play (5.4), don’t expect the Commodores to keep Saturday’s matchup within 14 points.
Florida-Vanderbilt Prediction: Florida -14 (-110) at DraftKings
Houston-East Carolina: Target Inefficient Total for Shootout
The Houston Cougars and East Carolina Pirates have combined to average 67.3 points per game. Houston played a 140-point game against SMU just two weeks ago, and the over is 9-1 in their games this season. East Carolina is just 5-5 to the over, but Houston’s pass-heavy offense is a favorable matchup for a bunch of points.
Both of these offenses have played efficiently. East Carolina ranks 24th in yards per play (6.2) and Houston ranks 20th (6.3). Both passing offenses have worked well, as East Carolina ranks 48th in yards per pass attempt (7.7), while Houston ranks 32nd (7.9). They both also rank among the FBS’ most frequent passes — Houston throws 55.9% of the time, which ranks 20th, while East Carolina throws 54.4% of the time, which ranks 29th.
Likewise, neither secondary has done much this season. East Carolina ranks 125th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.8) while Houston ranks 100th (7.9). Further, East Carolina’s passing offense will face its most efficient quarterback to date in Houston’s Clayton Tune. Tune ranks 15th in passing efficiency, which leads the AAC.
The total for this contest varies from 66.5 to 68 across the market. Bettors should buy in on the lower side as this number should creep up throughout the week.
Houston-East Carolina Prediction: Over 66.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Georgia-Kentucky: Will Levis Hype Train Derailed
Another SEC game concludes our list of early Week 12 college football picks. Kentucky quarterback Will Levis was supposed to look like a first-round pick this season. But after leading the Wildcats to a 6-4 record — and a home loss to Vanderbilt — Levis’ draft stock has plummeted. His Wildcats have hit the over just once all season. With the Bulldogs at 7-3 to the under, don’t expect much scoring on Saturday.
Neither team will get many chances to score. Both offenses have played quite slowly — Kentucky ranks 129th in seconds per play (30.2) and Georgia ranks 112th (27.9). Although Georgia ranks third in yards per play (7.1) and fourth in points per game (41.4), Kentucky’s defense ranks an impressive 13th in red-zone scoring opportunities allowed per game (2.7). Georgia’s defense ranks sixth (2.3) in the metric.
Georgia should keep the ball on the ground in this spot. The Wildcats rank 48th in yards allowed per play (5.2) and 34th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7). However, their rushing defense ranks 77th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3), so the Bulldogs should lean on their ground game and wind the clock. Kentucky’s opponents have run the ball 53.3% of the time, which ranks 49th.
Even if Georgia scores 30-plus points, Kentucky’s offense has proven to be unreliable all season. The Wildcats rank a dismal 91st in yards per play (5). They averaged 5.6 yards per play against Vanderbilt last week, but Vanderbilt’s defense ranked 125th in yards allowed per play (6.7) heading into the matchup.
Georgia-Kentucky Prediction: Under 49.5 (-110) at BetMGM
