As the college football season progresses, books and bettors get a much better idea of what each team can do. With preseason research offering less and less of an edge, bettors should turn to advanced metrics and take careful stock of injuries when making early Week 6 college football betting picks and predictions. This week’s column will fade two teams with big question marks at quarterback heading into Week 6 play: Louisville and Fresno State.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. The Week 5 CFB column secured closing-line value in three spots. Two plays hit, but another missed big due to late-breaking injury news, bringing the column to 11-4 in finding CLV and 9-6 for hits.
Week 6 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Louisville Favored Despite Losing Quarterback
The Louisville Cardinals lost starting quarterback Malik Cunningham to an injury after he took a hit to the head against Boston College. Cunningham returned to the game for two drives before exiting under his own power. Head coach Scott Satterfield told reporters that Cunning suffered “an undisclosed injury,” and his status for this Saturday remains up in the air.
Louisville’s offense runs through Cunningham. The dual-threat quarterback leads the team in passing and rushing. Only four of the school’s offensive touchdowns haven’t involved Cunningham either passing or running the ball. This became apparent when Cunningham left Saturday’s game, as backup quarterback Brock Domann went just 1-for-8 for 19 yards and an interception in relief of Cunningham.
While head coach Scott Satterfield hasn’t provided an update about Cunningham’s status yet, the Cardinals would seriously struggle without him, yet Louisville remains a 3.5-point to 3-point favorite over Virginia on the college football betting markets. The Virginia Cavaliers haven’t played great football this season and are 1-4 against the spread, but they beat Louisville on the road last year. Worse, Louisville has gone a miserable 7-13-1 against the spread when playing on the road under Satterfield. Bet the +3.5 now in hopes that Satterfield rules out Cunningham in advance of Saturday’s contest.
Louisville vs. Virginia: Virginia +3.5 (-110) at Caesars
Depleted Fresno State Imploded Against UConn
After Fresno State gave the banged-up UConn Huskies their first win against an FBS team since 2019, reporters asked Bulldogs head coach Jeff Tedford what went wrong. “Everything,” he responded. Since the Bulldogs struggled under their backup quarterback, lost multiple offensive linemen and routinely turned the ball over, that assessment seems fair. Unfortunately, it’ll take a while for Fresno State to fix everything.
The Bulldogs entered the year with hopes of making a New Year’s Six Bowl. But after star quarterback Jake Haener suffered a high-ankle sprain against USC, those hopes were functionally dashed. Now the Bulldogs must head into conference play with their starting quarterback’s status up in the air. His backup, Logan Fife, threw two picks and fumbled against UConn last week. But even if Haener can suit up, he’ll have to play behind a depleted offensive line, which could limit his effectiveness or even risk re-injury. Haener also imploded against the Broncos in Fresno last year, as he threw three interceptions in a 26-point loss.
Fresno State must head to Idaho for a matchup against the Boise State Broncos next week. The Broncos are themselves dealing with roster tumult, although they seemingly got it under control last weekend. The Broncos won their first game after replacing offensive coordinator Tim Plough with Boise State legend Dirk Koetter, which also led to a quarterback change. Boise State’s new-look offense ran for an absurd 316 yards on just 44 attempts last weekend, which bodes poorly for a Fresno State offense ranked 92nd in yards allowed per rush (4.6). This number could spike to -10 if Haener gets ruled out before kickoff, so buy low on the Broncos while that’s possible.
Fresno State vs. Boise State: Boise State -6 (-110) at WynnBet
UCLA Overrated After Washington Win
The UCLA Bruins scored an impressive home win over then-No. 15 Washington on Friday night. However, the UCLA defense did its absolute best to keep Washington in the game. Late-game scores and poor offensive play almost cost the Bruins a 24-point fourth-quarter lead. Although Michael Penix couldn’t capitalize and get Washington the win, Cameron Rising and the Utah Utes would have been able to.
The Utes enter the week ranked eighth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). The Bruins rank just 41st. Utah owns a higher-ranked offense (9th vs. 14th) and defense (17th vs. 62nd). While the Utes aren’t undefeated, their lone loss came against a tough SEC opponent. In contrast, UCLA hadn’t faced a tough opponent until Washington.
Further, UCLA does not benefit from much home-field advantage. The Bruins are just 12-15-1 against the spread at home under Chip Kelly. The Rose Bowl’s distance from UCLA’s campus is the likely cause, as it can be inconvenient for students to make the trip. The Bruins needed a top-15 opponent and a Friday night kickoff to attract their largest crowd of the year last week, but this week’s early Saturday kickoff may draw considerably less interest. With the Utes favored by just over a field goal, expect the number to tick up as the week progresses.
Utah vs. UCLA: Utah -4 (-110) at DraftKings
