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Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Odds & Prediction: Volunteers to Start Hot in Neyland (September 24)

The Gators and Volunteers have one of the strongest rivalries in college football. While Florida has recently owned Tennessee, the tides are rapidly changing. The No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers head into Saturday’s contest as an 11-point favorite, yet they haven’t beaten the Gators in five years. Although the sportsbooks predict Florida’s winning streak over Tennessee will come to an end, bettors should consider whether the books have overestimated the Volunteers’ advantage.

Florida head coach Billy Napier, a new hire, started strong in Week 1, but his Gators lost to Kentucky and struggled against South Florida. Quarterback Anthony Richardson got off to a great start but hasn’t recaptured what he flashed against Utah. Both Napier and Richardson must bounce back quickly to keep Florida above .500.

 

Florida vs. Tennessee Predictions and Week 4 Picks

Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Odds

Gators Have Regressed Significantly Since Week 1

The No. 20 Florida Gators flashed incredible talent against Utah in Week 1 but haven't looked the same since. Quarterback Anthony Richardson led a late-game comeback and scored three rushing touchdowns. Running backs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne looked incredibly efficient as well, and the offensive line generated plenty of opportunities for all three players to gash Utah's defense. But then Richardson's limitations as a passer reared their head. Richardson has completed only 53.2% of his passes for 423 yards and four interceptions. Richardson ranks fifth worst in passing efficiency.

Florida's offense relies on the ground game, so it therefore also relies on its run blockers. The offensive line boasts the size and strength to be effective. Having massive players like left tackle Richard Gouraige and right guard O'Cyrus Torrence certainly gives Florida an advantage in the trenches. The results have been solid thus far, as Florida has allowed only nine tackles for loss this season, which ranks eighth in the NCAA. However, Florida's reliance on the running game and lack of a true passing attack can cause huge problems if the Gators get stuck playing from behind. Surrendering an early lead to the Volunteers could prove fatal.

The Gator defense deserves some praise as well, although more for splash plays than for solid overall performance. A clutch late-game interception sealed the Week 1 win over Utah. Florida held Kentucky to only two offensive touchdowns in Week 2, and one came on a drive that started on Florida's own six-yard line. Cornerback Jalen Kimber got a crucial pick-six against South Florida as well, and the Gators have now intercepted four passes this year. Still, the defense has struggled to get stops. Opposing offenses have converted 48.8% of their third downs against Florida, which ranks 14th worst in the NCAA. The Gators have also allowed two successful fourth-down conversions on four attempts.

 

Are the Tennessee Volunteers Finally Back?

After a commanding home win over Akron, the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers get another game in Knoxville, this one against the rival Gators. Florida has won all but one of their last eight meetings in Neyland. That said, the Volunteers won their only matchup as the higher-ranked team. And with how good quarterback Hendon Hooker has looked, it's easy to understand why the books are listing Tennessee as a double-digit home favorite.

Hooker already entered the year with an impressive resume, but he has built on it since. He finished last season as the third-best passer, and he ranks 19th in passing efficiency this year after just three weeks. Hooker has completed 69% of his passes for 812 yards, five scores and 9.8 yards per attempt. He is also yet to throw an interception. Hooker has a talented cast of receivers to target, including big-bodied boundary receiver Cedric Tillman Jr. and speedster Jalin Hyatt. With aggressive head coach Josh Heupel calling the plays, Hooker gets plenty of chances to shine -- the Volunteers may have only converted 40% of their third-down plays so far, but they have gone for it on fourth down nine times and have succeeded all but once.

Tennessee has only faced one scary opponent in Pitt, but the defense looks solid so far. The unit got a big sack and forced a fourth-down stop against them in overtime. The school's other opponents, Ball State and Akron, combined to score only 16 points, all of which came in the second half of blowouts. The Volunteer defense has allowed opposing offenses to convert only 22.2% of their third downs and 42.9% of their fourth downs. Opposing offenses have averaged only 83.7 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt as well.

Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction

The Volunteers routinely get out to fast starts. Last year, Josh Heupel's Volunteers ranked fourth in points per first half with 22.6. This year, they have averaged 32.3 points per first half, which ranks second. The Volunteers scored 38 unanswered first-half points against Ball State and 33 unanswered first-half points against Akron. Although the Pitt game was more contentious, the Volunteers still scored 24 first-half points and allowed the Panthers to score 17, good for a total of 41. Volunteers have allowed the 11th-fewest points per first half at 5.7.

Most books set the first half spread at -6.5 at and the first-half total at 31.5. The Volunteers have beaten that first-half total in each of their three games, including two that required them to beat it by themselves. The first-half total looks solid, but a slow, run-oriented Florida offense could derail it. Instead, look to the first-half spread. Tennessee will come into this game knowing a hot start is the best way to beat a run-first team -- if they can execute, the Volunteers should lead by at least a touchdown by halftime.

Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee First Half -6.5 (-115) at DraftKings

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