The 8-4 Fresno State Bulldogs and 9-3 Boise State Broncos both had a rocky season, but the teams managed to overcome adversity and qualify for the Mountain West championship game. Bettors looking to make a positive return on the contest should these Fresno-State Boise State picks and predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other smart Mountain West Championship odds and predictions.
Mountain West Championship Odds: Fresno State-Boise State Odds
Mountain West Championship odds via Draftkings.
Haener Getting Another Shot at Boise State
The Fresno State Bulldogs started the year with hopes of qualifying for a New Year's Six Bowl. Those hopes were quickly dashed in their Week 2 loss to Oregon State. But the worst was yet to come -- star quarterback Jake Haener went down against USC, and the Bulldogs gave UConn their first win against an FBS program since 2019 the very next week. But the Bulldogs followed their awful start with an impressive 7-1 run in conference play, a turnaround that likely wouldn't have happened but for Haener's return against San Diego State.
Fresno State ranks a solid 59th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Their 51st-ranked offense has led the way. The Bulldogs rank 44th in yards per play. Running back Jordan Mims has come through on the ground, as his 1,080 rushing yards rank 25th. Haener has averaged a solid 8.47 yards per attempt (Y/A) and owns a passer efficiency rating of 162.2, which would rank 11th in the FBS if he had played enough snaps to be eligible. Haener has thrown 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions this season. However, he averaged 7.3 Y/A and threw two touchdowns and three interceptions at home against Boise State last year.
The Bulldogs have fared a bit worse on defense. That unit ranks only 64th in the FEI but 44th in yards allowed per play (5.2). The Bulldogs were without safety and defensive captain Evan Williams for the early part of the season, but like Haener, he returned against San Diego State. Williams ranks third on the team in tackles despite having played only eight games. The Bulldogs have started to trend in the right direction defensively -- they have given up only 4.8 yards per play over their last three games.
Unfortunately, Fresno State's run defense could do them in on Saturday. They rank 95th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.5), 78th in rushing yards allowed per game (163.9) and 78th in defensive line yards. The Broncos gashed them for 316 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per rush attempt in their earlier meeting this season.
After Slow Start, Broncos Look Dominant
The Boise State Broncos look dramatically different from how they were supposed to look coming into the season. The team moved on from offensive coordinator Tim Plough after a distressing loss to UTEP and replaced him with Dirk Koetter. Shortly thereafter, quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal, leaving Boise State with a dual-threat quarterback in Taylen Green. The Broncos have lost just one game since.
The Broncos rank 53rd in the FEI. Their offense ranks a respectable 55th. Koetter has slowly coaxed more out of Green as a passer -- Green's first three starts saw him complete only 59.6% of his passes for 7.7 Y/A, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He had a passer efficiency rating of just 125.7. Since then, Green has completed 65.6% of his passes for 8.9 Y/A, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. He boasts an impressive passer efficiency rating of 166.1 through that stretch. Like Haener, Green has gotten plenty of help from his lead rusher -- running back George Holani ranks 28th in total rushing yards (1,059).
Boise State's defense has played a bit better than the offense. The unit ranks 38th in the FEI and 15th in yards allowed per play (4.7). The Broncos rank 29th in both yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6) and yards allowed per rush attempt (3.7). Although they rank an impressive second in passing yards allowed per game (161.7), that number might be more a function of the offenses they've faced than the quality of their defense. Utah State's Cooper Legas just threw for 306 yards against Boise State last week, and BYU's Jaren Hall went for 377 in early November.
The Broncos have appeared in five of the nine Mountain West Conference championship games and own a 3-2 record in them. They have hosted the game four times and won all but one of those contests. Their lone home loss came against a ranked Fresno State team in 2018. The Broncos have gone 5-1 at home and are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in Boise when facing conference opponents.
Final Fresno State-Boise State Prediction & Pick
The Mountain West championship game features a familiar matchup: #BoiseState and #FresnoState. I'm backing the Broncos to score yet another home conference win—and to cover—this weekend.https://t.co/i6kbneOSZq
— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) December 3, 2022
The Broncos should win and cover. Although the return of Jake Haener will make this game a lot closer than the first meeting between these teams, the books have adjusted accordingly. Boise State opened as a 5.5-point favorite, which was probably a bit much, but has since been bid down to a mere field-goal favorite. The Broncos are a pretty easy buy at that price.
Fresno State lacks the rushing defense necessary to keep Boise State from controlling this game. That's how the Broncos have won their last two games against the Bulldogs. Boise State possessed the ball for 34:35 in their first game against Fresno State this year, and they possessed it for 36:09 in their lone matchup against them last year. Although Haener is a more efficient quarterback than Taylen Green, the Broncos should keep him off the field with a heavy dose of running back George Holani.
Final Fresno State-Boise State Prediction: Boise State -3 (-110) at DraftKings
