On a week with letdown worries across the country, No. 1 Georgia travels to Starkville looking to put those concerns to rest matched up with Mississippi State.
Georgia took control of the SEC’s East Division and claimed the top spot in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings with its dominant 27-13 win over then-No. 2 Tennessee last week. Coming off that massive win, Georgia will be immediately tested by a Mississippi State team that will look to play the role of spoiler.
Seeking its first win over the top-ranked team since beating Alabama 6-3 in 1980, Mississippi State is coming off a thrilling 39-33 overtime win against Auburn, and Mike Leach’s bunch is bowl eligible at 6-3.
In a battle of the Bulldogs, which team will come out on top?
College Football Odds: Georgia-Mississippi State Odds
Georgia Spread: -16.5
Mississippi State Spread: +16.5
Moneyline: Georgia -800/Mississippi State +575
Total: 52
Ironically enough, Georgia and Mississippi State have played just twice since 2012, with Georgia winning at home both in 2017 and 2020. This is the first time that these two teams have played in Starkville since 2010, when the Dan Mullen led Bulldogs handed Mark Richt and Georgia a 24-12 defeat in Mississippi State’s first win in the series since 1974.
While there’s a lack of familiarity between these two SEC foes, Starkville will be rocking with the No. 1 team in the country in town for a visit.
Georgia continues to battle for playoff positioning, while Mississippi State looks to better their bowl positioning by pulling off what would be the upset of the year.
How Good is Georgia?
Georgia is squarely in the running for another title this season. Coming off a demolishing of Tennessee last weekend, Kirby Smart and Co. are now back to No. 1 in the CFP Rankings with the inside track on a fifth SEC East title in six years.
After beating Kent State by only 17 and Missouri by only four in back-to-back weeks in September, concerns about Georgia’s staying power quickly rose. Those concerns have been dismissed, however, as the ascending national champs are coming off dominating performances against both Florida and the aforementioned Tennessee.
While the Bulldogs’ defense was the star of the show last year and continues to be elite, Georgia’s offense has been excellent this season, even with some depth issues at wide receiver. Led by quarterback Stetson Bennett, Georgia’s passing game has taken a massive leap this year, culminating with a Success Rate that ranks first in the country when passing the ball. Ranking only 124th in explosive pass plays, the offense won’t look to push the ball too much down the field, but considering their success, it’s hard to argue with results.
Second in the country in rush success rate behind a potent offensive line, Georgia is also happy to pound the ball with running backs Daijuan Edwards and Kenny McIntosh.
While the offense has certainly carried its weight this year, Georgia’s defense remains one of the best overall units in college football. Currently ranking first in the country in defensive SP+, Georgia’s performance against Tennessee was one for the ages, as the Bulldogs completely shutdown an offense that had been borderline unstoppable all season long. It’s no surprise that Georgia leads the SEC in yards allowed per game (265.6), rushing yards allowed per game (86.4) and scoring only allowing 10.8 points per game.
Star defensive tackle Jalen Carter, a projected first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft, was unstoppable against the Volunteers with four tackles, including tow for losses, and a sack while forcing two fumbles. After missing two games with a knee injury, Carter returned just in time to dominate Tennessee.
With a surging offense and the top defense in the SEC, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Georgia loses this game, but can Mississippi State do enough to keep it close?
Can Mississippi State Keep Up?
Despite being a huge underdog in this spot, Mississippi State come into this game with the SEC’s No. 2 passing game. Quarterback Will Rogers is the conference’s leading passer, averaging 323.6 yards per game with 26 total touchdowns. Rogers’ 2,912 passing yards is good for sixth in FBS and he’s relied on a multitude of targets, with four receivers over 300 yards and eight over 200. Rara Thomas has been Rogers’ most consistent wideout, leading the Bulldogs with 560 yards and is second with five touchdown catches. Thomas posted his second multi-touchdown game against Auburn, with scoring catches 22 and 33 yards.
Typical of an Air Raid offense, Mississippi State’s offense has been extremely one-sided this season, ranking dead last in the country in rush rate. Leach’s Bulldogs are 40th in Success Rate when it runs passing plays and 130th in explosiveness.
While the defense has overall been solid, Mississippi State’s pass defense is its strength. The Bulldogs are a bit vulnerable to explosive passes, ranking 99th in that metric, but they have been consistently good at stopping teams from moving the chains via passing, ranking 13th in Success Rate against the pass.
Unlike their pass defense, however, Mississippi State’s rush defense has been porous this season and Georgia would be smart to only pass when necessary. Relying on a defense that 95th in EPA, 81st in Success Rate and 92nd in explosive rushes, to slow down a Georgia offense that has elite talent at all positions is a tough ask
Georgia-Mississippi State Prediction
To the surprise of no one, the masses are in love with Georgia in this spot. Kirby Smart and Co. are currently hauling in 64% of the bets placed on this game. Big money, however, is on Mississippi State as 78% of the money placed on this game currently sides with Mike Leach’s squad.
It’s a classic Pros vs. Joes matchup with the public all over Georgia and the wise guys all over Mississippi State. While it might not feel good fading Georgia after their massive win against Tennessee, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs, and considering Leach is 16-7 against the spread as an underdog of more than 14 points, we will side with the home team to cover this large number.
Final Georgia-Mississippi State Prediction: Mississippi State +16.5 (-112, FanDuel)
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