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Illinois vs. Wisconsin Betting Odds & Prediction: Badgers to Start Strong at Home (October 1)

The Wisconsin Badgers enter Saturday’s game against Illinois coming off a 31-point drubbing by Ohio State. While the loss wasn’t unexpected, the game was never close — Wisconsin entered the half trailing by 24 and the final quarter trailing by 38. The Badgers now sit at 2-2; their other came at the hands of Washington State. Still, the books predict Wisconsin will beat Illinois by a touchdown.

In contrast, The Illinois Fighting Illini enter Saturday’s contest coming off a 31-point beatdown over Chattanooga. The Fighting Illini are 3-1, but they would be 4-0 if not for some late-game failures against Indiana, including a turnover on downs near the goal line.

 

Illinois vs. Wisconsin Week 5 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions

Illinois vs. Wisconsin Betting Odds

Illinois a Play Away From 4-0

Although the Fighting Illini couldn't get it done against Indiana, they dominated their three other opponents. Illinois beat Wyoming by 32 in Week 0. Illinois held Virginia to a field goal and won by 21 in Week 2 then blew out FCS Chattanooga by 31 in Week 4. Although Illinois hasn't faced the most challenging competition -- their strength of schedule ranks 114th -- the Fighting Illini enter Saturday's contest with some impressive stats. They even rank 47th in the opponent-adjusted Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings.

The Illinois offense hasn't looked great. The offense ranks just 95th in the FEI ratings and has averaged only 5.4 yards per play against FBS teams, which ranks 75th. Quarterback Tommy DeVito ranks a solid 48th in passing efficiency and has completed 69% of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt. He has thrown nine touchdowns -- although three of those came against FCS competition -- and two picks. Running back Chase Brown is the true offensive highlight-- he has averaged 6.4 yards per carry (YPC), which ranks 25th among eligible FBS players. Still, the unit lacks a true lead receiver.

In contrast, the Illini defense looks solid. The unit ranks 19th in the FEI ratings, an FBS-high 29-spot jump from their preseason rank. FBS teams facing Illinois have gained only 4.1 yards per play and converted 25.5% of their third-down conversions. The pass rush hasn't been great, but Illinois has forced 2.3 takeaways per game against FBS competition. Defensive linemen Keith Randolph Jr. and Jer'Zhan Newton share the lead in total tackles with 21, including 10 tackles for loss and five sacks.

 

Badgers Better Than Record Suggests

Unlike Illinois, Wisconsin enters this Week 5 contest coming off a gauntlet of a schedule. The Badgers rank fifth in strength of schedule after Week 4, trailing only two Power 5 programs, 3-1 Oregon and 2-2 South Carolina. The Badgers share an opponent with the Ducks, Wazzu, who took down one of them and almost beat the other. Still, the Badgers remain a solid 14th in the FEI ratings despite their two losses and 1-2 record in the FBS.

As is typical of the Big Ten, Wisconsin's offense has looked like a sluggish complement to a ferocious defense. The Badgers' offense ranks 45th in the FEI ratings but has averaged a solid 6.4 yards per play against FBS competition, which ranks 25th. The balanced offensive attack ranks 16th in yards per pass attempt (9.3) and 29th in yards per rush attempt (5). Quarterback Graham Mertz ranks 21st in passing efficiency and has completed 67.1% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt. He struggled against Ohio State in Columbus last weekend, but he'll have a chance to get right against Illinois in Madison. Star running back Braelon Allen has averaged 6.81 YPC as well, which ranks 13th.

Wisconsin's defense looks elite. The unit ranks fourth in the FEI ratings, but last weekend's game against Ohio State skews almost all their other stats. For instance, the Badgers were allowing only 4.2 yards per play as of last week, which ranked 14th, but that number has since spiked to 5.5, which ranks 65th. The Badgers had also allowed their opponents to convert only 23.1% of their third downs as of last week, which ranked 13th, but that number has since ticked up to 35.1%, which ranks 45th. Both the books and bettors may be overreacting to Wisconsin's 2-2 start.

Illinois vs. Wisconsin Prediction

The Wisconsin Badgers should bounce back on Saturday afternoon. A tepid 2-2 start is unbecoming of a team performing this well in advanced metrics. That's why this spread opened at -10, but enough money poured in on Illinois to cover that the books lowered this number to -7. That move has shifted the value from the Illini to the Badgers, but not quite enough to warrant playing the full-game spread.

Instead, the adjusted first-half spread offers more value. Wisconsin has led by at least a touchdown heading into halftime in of all their home games. While Illinois dominated in the first half against Virginia and Chattanooga, they played those games at home, and the Illini struggled early on the road against Indiana. The Hoosiers entered halftime with a six-point lead over them. Back the Badgers to get out to an early lead.

Illinois vs. Wisconsin Prediction: Wisconsin -4 (-105) at DraftKings 

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