With DraftKings separating these teams by just 2.5 points, expect a bit of a slug fest when examining the Baylor Bears on the road against the Iowa State Cyclones. Looking at this from a betting angle, where should the lean be here? Let’s explore.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Predictions & Week 4 Picks
Iowa State vs. Baylor Betting Odds (DraftKings)
| Baylor Spread | +2.5 (-110) |
| Iowa State Spread | -2.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | 46 |
| Location | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa |
| Time | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Are The Cyclones For Real?
The Iowa State Cyclones this year have not allowed more than 10 points in a game. They’ve played Southeast Missouri, Iowa and Ohio through three games. While Southeast Missouri and Ohio are easier matchups — they scored over 40 points in both — they did grind out a grueling 10-7 win over their intrastate rivals.
This week at home, they get a Baylor Bears team that is the better football team than those three, especially on offense.
The Cyclones defense has multiple solid defenders, including linebackers O’Rien Vance and Colby Reeder, cornerback T.J. Tampa in run defense and M.J. Anderson rushing the passer. Reeder is also a solid coverage linebacker.
If there’s any weakness on this team, it’s the coverage unit, which is pretty solid across the board. Still, the two starting cornerbacks in Tampa and Myles Purchase are somewhat beatable.
They’ll get a duo of Baylor receivers in Hal Presley and Seth Jones. They are the two most-targeted receivers on the team but aren’t anything to worry that much about.
The threat they’ll need to concern themselves with, somewhat, is tight end Ben Sims, who’s probably been the team’s best receiver, catching nine of 10 passes for 67 yards and a touchdown.
This Cyclones defense’s primary goal will be handling this Bears four-headed rushing attack with Richard Reese, Craig Williams, Qualan Jones and Taye McWilliams. All of these guys, except McWilliams, average over 4.6 yards per carry and have multiple touchdowns.
As for the Cyclones offense, this one shouldn’t be much different than any other game — quarterback Hunter Dekkers is going to look for wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson a lot. He has 23 more targets than the next most-targeted player on the team.
Can Blake Shapen Rally The Troops?
The Bears are 2-1 on the year, with their lone loss coming in Week 2 at BYU in overtime. BYU isn’t competing for a National Championship by any means, but they’re a fellow top-25 team. The Bears competed all game long, which is notable, especially as ranked road dogs against the Cyclones.
The rushing attack is the poignant part of the offense here, but can quarterback Blake Shapen get something going?
Averaging just under 25 attempts per game, his best shot may be getting Sims, Jones and perhaps even slot receiver Monaray Baldwin more involved.
Baldwin has just four targets on the year but has caught them for 84 yards and a score. He’ll see plenty of safety Beau Freyler out of the slot, who’s a more than respectable opponent — has yet to allow a catch — but this is a potential opportunity the Cyclones may not see coming.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction
At 2.5, the Bears feel like the better team here, so we’d lean there, but we’ll look at the total here.
When you’re relying on rushing attacks to get offenses moving on one side, with the other team depending on an apparent passing connection that should see some decent coverage, there will be lots of clock ticking.
Also, Baylor has the edge when you look at the defensive/offensive line matchups on both sides. Still, Iowa State should somewhat hold up in pass protection (but yes, Baylor has the edge).
Take the under here.
Best NCAAF Bet: Baylor Moneyline (+120); Baylor +2.5 (-110); Under 46 (-110)
All statistics come from Pro Football Focus and NCAA.com.
