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Michigan vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds: Boilermakers Big Ten Championship Upset?

It’s championship weekend in college football, and in the Big Ten, the Michigan Wolverines take on the Purdue Boilermakers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Let’s dive into the Michigan-Purdue prediction, odds and pick. For other Big Ten Championship odds, check out the OddsShopper tool.

The Wolverines beat down the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Can they repeat that here?

Big Ten Championship Odds: Michigan-Purdue Odds

Michigan Spread -16.5 (-110)
Purdue State Spread +16.5 (-110)
Big Ten Championship Prediction Over/Under 51.5
Location Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Time 8 pm ET
TV FOX

Limited Role for Blake Corum?

There’s no official word as to the status of injured Michigan running back Blake Corum, but against Ohio State he had just two carries for 6 yards. Of course, that recipe worked more than fine against Ohio State, so against Purdue, who does have a solid run defense, does this matter?

It’s safe to say Michigan (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten East) wins this game, but through the lens of a point spread north of two touchdowns, Corum’s health and playing time do matter.

Purdue (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten West) has yet to play a team like Michigan that runs the ball the way it does. Even if Corum cannot play, Donovan Edwards proved he’s more than capable, rushing for 216 yards on 22 carries and scoring twice against Ohio State. 

Though quarterback J.J. McCarthy wasn’t the very efficient (12 of 24), he still passed for 263 yards and three scores, utilizing Cornelius Johnson and Ronnie Bell

The Boilermakers allow 218 passing yards per game (59th in the country). Their coverage unit doesn’t have anyone of note besides Cory Trice, who’s allowed just 18 catches this year for 195 yards. 

What Can the Purdue Offense Do?

Though Purdue and quarterback Aidan O’Connell average 280.7 passing yards per game (21st in the nation), they’re going up against a defense that allows only 177.0 per game. O’Connell has 3,124 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. But his average target depth is just 8.4 yards, and he has a 4.3% turnover-worthy play rate (22 total), per Pro Football Focus. 

The Purdue rushing offense ranks just inside the top 100, averaging 125.8 per game (3.84 yards per carry).

The most notable Purdue playmaker is wide receiver Charlie Jones, with 97 catches on 138 targets for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The Michigan defense is fantastic. Unless O’Connell and Jones can get something going, they’ll have a hard time contending, with the only hope being some garbage time points. 

Final Michigan-Purdue Prediction & Pick

The only aspect of this game that could dictate where this goes regarding the point spread is the Purdue run defense. It allows less than 4.0 yards per carry. Suppose they can contain this rushing attack led by Edwards (assuming Corum is limited or misses the game). In that case, they have a chance to cover.

However, if we learn that Corum is ready to go and will suit up — after all, his Heisman Trophy potential hangs in the balance — the Boilermakers have no chance. Now time for our final Big Ten Championship prediction using all available Big Ten Championship odds. 

Final Michigan-Purdue Prediction: Michigan -16.5 (-110)

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