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Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Odds & Prediction: Fade Hawkeye Offense in Week 5 (October 1)

The No. 4 Michigan Wolverines enter their Week 5 contest after a near-upset to Taulia Tagovailoa and the unranked Maryland Terrapins. Maryland led until just before halftime, and the Terrapins kept things close until deep in the second half. Now Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines must prepare to face Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa Hawkeyes. The college football betting markets predict a big win for Michigan, as Iowa is an 11-point underdog. The total sits at 42.

Iowa infamously opened its season with a 7-3 win over South Dakota State in which neither team scored a touchdown. After falling to Iowa State 10-7, Iowa’s offense finally started putting points on the board — the Hawkeyes beat Nevada by 27 and Rutgers by 17. Still, this already-inept offense will struggle against Michigan’s sixth-ranked defense.

 

Michigan vs. Iowa Week 5 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions

Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Odds

Wolverines are Looking Unbeatable

The final score between Michigan and Maryland may have been close, but the Wolverines were obviously the better team. Michigan racked up 463 yards and averaged 8.5 yards per play. In contrast, Maryland finished with 397 yards on 6.9 yards per play. The Wolverines had one 46-yard drive end in a fumble and another 47-yard drive end in a missed field goal. Two of Maryland's touchdown late-game drives also came when Michigan already led by multiple scores.

Even though Maryland was Michigan's first real opponent this year, as the Wolverines entered Week 4 having faced only Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn, the opponent-adjusted metrics lean strongly in Michigan's favor. The Wolverines rank fourth overall in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings. The offense ranks 13th and the defense sixth. While it's true Michigan boasts a light strength of schedule to this point, they rank right around Georgia, Clemson and Minnesota in Football Outsider's calculations.

Michigan has no obvious weakness. The offense ranks fifth in yards per play (7.4), and both the rushing and passing offenses rank seventh in yards per attempt. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy ranks third in passing efficiency and trails only C.J. Stroud among players with at least four games played. He leads the FBS in yards per pass attempt at 11.5. Running back Blake Corum ranks fifth in yards per rushing attempt at 7.5 as well. Defensively, Michigan ranks 21st in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.2) and first in yards allowed per pass attempt (4.7). The defense has allowed opposing offenses to convert only 29.3% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 18th.

 

Hawkeyes Have No Offense, No Offense

The Iowa Hawkeyes started Big Ten play with a win over Rutgers. Although Iowa won by 17, the final score is deceiving. The Hawkeyes scored only 13 points on offense -- two of their three touchdowns came on defensive plays. Iowa has scored only five offensive touchdowns all season. While the defense deserves credit, the offense must improve for Iowa to legitimately contend. The unit averages only 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 107th.

To Iowa's credit, the defense has been elite. Kirk Ferentz has engineered the third-best defense in the FEI ratings. The unit has allowed only 3.7 yards per play, which trails only Alabama and James Madison but is tied with Michigan. The Hawkeyes have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (4.9) and the eighth-fewest yards per rush attempt (2.6). That said, the Hawkeyes rank only 65th in third-down conversion percentage allowed (38.2%).

Still, Iowa's offense will hold this team back. The Hawkeyes scored only seven points against Iowa State this year, and the Cyclones' 13th-ranked defense is the closest comparator to Michigan's of Iowa's opponents -- Rutgers and Nevada ranked 70th and 73rd, respectively. Starting quarterback Spencer Petras ranks 122nd in passing efficiency among 128 eligible FBS quarterbacks. Only one Power 5 quarterback, Colorado's now-benched J.T. Shrout, owns a worse rating. Iowa's best rusher, Leshon Williams, has averaged only 3.47 yards per carry. That ranks 137rd of 154 eligible FBS players.

Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction

After two weeks where Iowa scored 27 points, the books may have forgotten just how bad their offense is. Take away the defensive scores against Rutgers, and Iowa is averaging only 13.5 points per game. Michigan's offense has turned the ball over just twice this season, which ranks tied for seventh-best in the FBS. The Hawkeyes won't get free defensive scores this time.

Michigan's defense has limited its opponents to only 11 points per game. Although the Wolverines gave up 27 to Maryland, the Terrapins have a respectable quarterback in Taulia Tagovailoa. The Hawkeyes do not. The books have set Iowa's total far too high for this matchup.

Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction: Iowa Under 15.5 (-110) at FanDuel

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