The Service Academies are facing off again as their football teams start their journey toward the Commander in Chief’s trophy.
Air Force is excited for its prospects this year. They are a loaded team that returned a ton of talent from a 10-win squad a year ago. They also benefit from the perfect schedule draw to win their conference.
However, don’t sleep on Navy. Their defense looks great in the early going and they recently pulled off an upset over East Carolina. Don’t forget the momentum-building season-ending upset win over Army last season.
The Falcons are laying two touchdowns in this contest. Is that enough points?
Navy vs. Air Force Predictions and Week 5 Picks
Navy Overachieving In Early Season
Head coach Ken Niumatalolo tends to overachieve in Annapolis. The Midshipmen have gone 71-55-1 against the spread over the past decade under his leadership, including an 8-4 mark last season.
Niumatolo did it again last week, sneaking out a double-overtime road win over East Carolina to get the Midshipmen’s AAC hopes back on track. That overtime thriller came after a tough loss to Memphis. The Midshipmen held East Carolina to just 103 rushing yards on only 3.6 YPC.
This is what has kept Navy going this season. The Midshipmen are fourth in rush success rallowed and 17th in Defensive Line Yards. They only lost one starter from last year’s defensive line and the dividends are paying off.
That’s going to be huge in a game between two triple-option offenses. That’s especially the case because the Navy defense has been stout in the red zone and can hold Air Force to just field goals.
The Navy offense is a different issue. Niumatalolo has generally done well with inexperienced offensive lines, but this is one of the most experienced units he’s had during his tenure. This unit has managed to sneak into the top 70 in both line yards and havoc allowed.
But the run game still can’t get going. The Midshipmen are outside the top 100 in rush success rate and are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry.
If you can’t run the ball as a triple-option offense, you’re going to have a rough time.
Air Force Defense a Question
This is the best chance Air Force has had to win the Commander in Chief’s trophy- not to mention the Mountain West Conference- in a long time.
They returned 15 starters from a 10-3 season, where the team went 9-4 against the spread. Over 80% of their rushing production returned alongside starting QB Haaziq Daniels and eight offensive linemen from last season.
The Falcons are absurd offensively. It’s everything they’ve been hyped up to be. They’re averaging 6.7 yards per carry and are second in rush success rate. The offensive line is third in Line Yards and top 20 in Havoc allowed.
RB Brad Roberts was even named Mountain West Player of the Week last Saturday.
Brad Roberts liked scoring the first touchdown of the game, so he decided to do it again. @AF_Football pic.twitter.com/nMuYe9y9i8
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 10, 2022
If every run looks like that, it will be a good season for the Falcons.
But what is going on with their defense? The Falcons are one of the worst passing defenses in college football. They’re allowing almost five YPC. The Falcons have been dreadful in red zone defense as well.
All their faults came together against Wyoming. The Falcons managed a measly 14 points and lost as 16.5-point favorites to a stripped-down Cowboys team. If you’re the Flacons, you can’t allow this version of Wyoming to out-rush you (180 yards to 171).
This is a great Air Force team, but coach Troy Calhoun needs to regroup with his defense if he wants to compete for a Mountain West title.
Navy vs. Air Force Pick
It’s always hard to lay two touchdowns with a Service Academy.
It’s even harder when that Academy is playing a fellow Academy squad that knows how to defend this type of offense better than any team in the nation.
It’s even more difficult when the Service Academy you’re facing is one of the top rushing defenses in the nation.
Air Force is a great football team. But there is no way that they cover two touchdowns against Navy’s defense, which is overperforming everyone’s expectations.
The sharp money is coming in on Navy. The line has already been bet down from the opener of Navy +15.5 to Navy +14.
Best NCAAF Bet: Navy +14 (-105) at DraftKings | Playable at Number
