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New Mexico vs. UNLV Betting Odds & Prediction: Lobos Cover the Spread Against Rebels in Week 5 (September 30)

This is a real barn burner. The whole Mountain West Conference has turned into a dumpster fire.

The Lobos travel to Las Vegas to take on the Runnin’ Rebels. UNLV currently has the best record in the Mountain West, which is saying something after a two-win 2021.

New Mexico could be frisky. They dominated Maine and UTEP, alongside covering against Boise State. They found some life on offense with Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick leading a new triple option and look good in the secondary.

But can we really trust the Lobos on a Friday night in Allegiant Stadium?

New Mexico vs. UNLV Predictions and Week 5 Picks

New Mexico Offense

The Lobos will not pass the ball. They run at the sixth-highest rate in FBS, trailing only the service academies, UMass and Arkansas.

That’s intentional. Kendrick is not one to throw the ball, having completed 57% of his passes this season for a whopping 6 yards per attempt. He’s thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions despite his average depth of target being less than 8 yards.

But the Lobos have found some level of success rushing the ball. They’re inside the top-95 in both rush success rate and offensive line yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and eight rushing first downs per game.

The numbers aren’t pretty, but they represent some level of improvement from a disastrous 2021. Plus, New Mexico’s offensive attack is slow enough that the Lobos can grind down the clock and more easily cover big spreads as underdogs.

That becomes even more true when you take into account the Lobos’ secondary. Jerrick Reed leads a trio of experienced defensive backs that currently ranks 18th in PFF’s coverage grades and 47th in pass success rate allowed.

If your passing game stalls and you can’t defend three-to-four-yard rushes, it’s hard to cover two touchdowns against New Mexico.

UNLV Offense

UNLV returned four starters on the offensive line and then bolstered the depth, adding three impact transfers in SMU’s Cobe Bryant, Charleston Southern’s Preston Nichols, and Cal Poly’s D.J. Stuckey.

It’s worked. The Runnin’ Rebels are runnin’, ranking second in offensive line yards and 37th in rush success rate. UNLV is getting stuffed at the third-lowest rate in FBS. Things are working despite losing the top back in the offseason.

The Rebels have been highly inefficient in passing the ball, ranking 125th in pass success rate. But starting quarterback Doug Brumfield looks good, completing 70% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns and one interception.

It’s not a facade. He ranks 16th among all FBS quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grades. He can also run the ball himself:

The defense has been marginal. The Rebels have done well in the red zone but haven’t gotten much going at the line of scrimmage. It seems Marcus Arroyo wants to play a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense.

 

New Mexico vs. UNLV Pick

This game may be the shortest of the season.

New Mexico is going to commit to the run. Meanwhile, UNLV won’t back away from their uber-successful ground game to attack an overachieving New Mexico secondary. These two teams are going to run the ball, and the clock, constantly.

UNLV ranks 79th in seconds per play (27.1) while New Mexico ranks dead last (33).

It’s going to be hard for UNLV to ground-and-pound their way to a 15-point win with such little time to work, especially if Arroyo allows the Lobos to move the ball before locking down the defense in the red zone.

Moreover, both defenses will likely play well with their backs to the wall. Both teams rank top 25 nationally in Finishing Drives on defense.

It’s always smart to take big road underdogs with low totals, and this total sits at 43. This game script is set up perfectly for the Lobos to cover.

Best NCAAF Bet: New Mexico +14.5 (-107) at PointsBet | Buy to -14 (-110)

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