Northwestern’s season has faltered after beating Nebraska outright and beginning the process of sending Scott Frost to his grave. The Wildcats are 0-3 SU and ATS since that Week 0 upset, including an outright loss to Miami (Ohio).
They’ll now play a Penn State team that is rolling. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 with two non-conference Power 5 wins over Auburn and Purdue. The Lions certainly like where they are at coming into this one.
That being said, we care more about the spread than the ML, and the Wildcats are catching over 25 points.
Is that too many points? Or does this game have blowout written all over it?
Northwestern vs. Penn State Predictions and Week 5 Picks
Hilinski Playing Well
Northwestern had high offensive hopes coming into the year and they have delivered. It’s surprising with all their success on that side of the ball that they have not been able to win more games.
Quarterback Ryan Hilinski is bac and the offensive line brought back lots of experience. Their top three rushers returned, including dynamic playmaker Evan Hull.
Hull looked like he could have a breakout season but it’s actually been Hilinski who has taken the step forward.
The quarterback’s numbers don’t pop off the page, but Hilinski has already tossed for more yards in four games this season than in his nine games last year. He’s completing over 62% of his passes for close to seven yards per attempt. Although he has had trouble with turnovers, the whole passing offense is clicking with him at the helm.
It’s nice that this offensive line is top 20 in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades and top 30 in Havoc. The Wildcats are top 40 in pass success rate as a result.
Northwestern has been great in the defensive trenches, too. The Wildcats rank top 30 in PFF’s pass rush grades and top 40 in Havoc created. It’s slightly unusual considering they brought back just five defensive starters, but the Wildcat pass offense is working.
There are good matchups and bad matchups for Northwestern, but they might have a chance in this game.
Penn State Playing Well
The Nittany Lions faltered against the spread versus Central Michigan. But who can blame them after they started 3-0 straight up and against the spread?
The Lions are particularly good along their front seven. The Lions are fifth in PFF’s pass rush grades and second in Havoc created. It’s surprising considering only four defensive starters returned, but they replaced enough talent to replicate their production from last season.
The offense has also replicated their passing production from a year ago. The offensive line still isn’t great, but QB Sean Clifford has managed to re-create an explosive passing offense without Jahan Dotson who is now in the NFL. So far, Clifford has three receivers he’s looked to for over 600 yards and over 45 receptions.
Mitchell Tinsley, Parker Washington and Brenton Strange may be the best wide receiver group in the Big Ten save Ohio State.
But, as is usual with Penn State, the team can’t run the ball. Penn State is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, but it isn’t doing well from an efficiency standpoint and you can expect those stats to drop as they enter Big Ten play.
Penn State’s discipline lack of discipline is concerning. They were a fade last week because of their tackling, as the Lions rank 124th in PFF’s passing grades. That led to plenty of chunk plays for Central Michigan’s running backs Lew Nichols and Daniel Richardson. It would not be surprising to see Evan Hull re-create that output on Saturday.
Northwestern vs. Penn State Pick
This is too many points for a Big Ten battle.
Northwestern will fight in the trenches. They’ll hopefully slow the game down and take advantage of Penn State’s weaknesses on both the offensive and defensive lines. Hull will take advantage of Penn State’s tackling troubles and Hilinski will make plays he hasn’t in the past.
The only chance Penn State has to cover this spread is by creating a ton of explosive plays. But Northwestern is top-50 nationally in preventing Explosive plays and seventh in preventing Explosive plays on passing downs.
Northwestern is going to hang around in this game. Partly because of Northwestern’s ability, but partly because Penn State doesn’t have the juice to blow out this Wildcat team.
Best NCAAF Bet: Northwestern +25 (-110) at DraftKings | Buy to +24 (-110)
