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Ohio-Miami (OH) Prediction and Odds: Back the RedHawks as Small Underdogs

Thanks to the return of midweek MACtion on Tuesdays and Wednesdays throughout the month of November, we are currently in the midst of 27 straight days with at least one football game. With no NBA games on Tuesday night, the MAC is the star of the sports world, with plenty of eyes expected to be on Ohio-Miami (OH).

The MAC East Division is currently wide open with three teams sitting with a 4-1 conference record. Ohio is among that group and the Bobcats hope to keep their place atop the division after they match up with the RedHawks on Tuesday night.

Miami is 4-5 overall and 2-3 in MAC play to begin the season. The preseason East Division favorites, Miami’s season was derailed after quarterback Brett Gabbert was injured in the RedHawks’ season opener. After leading one of the most dominant passing attacks in the Group of Five last season, Gabbert is now back under center and will look to lead Miami past a red-hot Ohio team.

The Bobcats are 2.5-point favorites on the road and the total is set for 50.5 points.

Ohio-Miami (OH) Prediction and Odds

It’s been quite the turnaround for head coach Tim Albin and the Ohio Bobcats. A year after stumbling to a 3-9 record, the Bobcats are in the driver’s seat in the MAC East Division. While there’s a tie between three teams atop the standings at 4-1 in MAC play, Ohio holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo after a dominant 45-24 win over the Bulls last week. The Bobcats play Bowling Green, the other surprise team at 4-1, during the final week of the season.

Ohio has continued to prove oddsmakers incorrect this season. The Bobcats owned odds of 16-1 to win the conference and are now the front runners to win the East Division. Covering five games in a row as well, Albin’s bunch has three outright victories in a row as underdogs. Ohio will look for its fifth consecutive win overall on Tuesday night behind the improved play of quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

On the other end of the spectrum, Miami needs to win two of its final three matchups to become bowl-eligible. For a team with such lofty expectations, it’s surely been a disappointing season thus far in Oxford.

With Gabbert back leading the offense and a defense that leads the MAC in points allowed per game, Miami should see improvement down the stretch, and Tuesday night’s game will tell a lot about the state of the program.

How Good is Ohio?

There is no doubt that Ohio’s calling card is an efficient offense that averages 33.4 points and 431.2 total yards per game. The Bobcats have been very effective moving the ball through the air, averaging a robust 309.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 13th nationally.

Rourke has really come into his own as a passer this season, completing 68.3% of his passes for 9.0 yards per attempt, 2,725 yards, 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Rourke has multiple passing scores in five of his last six games and 300 yards through the air in four of them. After a mediocre sophomore campaign, Rourke has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season.

Wide receiver Sam Wiglusz has emerged as Rourke’s top target, averaging 79 receiving yards per game. With 55 catches for 710 yards and nine touchdowns, Wiglusz has been as productive as any receiver in the country over the past four weeks, and Miami will need to slow him down to have a chance to stay in this game.

The Bobcats’ offense is no joke, averaging 30 points per game and six yards per play against FBS competition, both ranking among the top 45 in the nation.

While the offense has been tremendous, Ohio’s defense has been a problem all year, allowing 31 points per game. The Bobcats’ secondary allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt and they will certainly be tested by Gabbert and the RedHawks.

How Bad is Miami?

Unlike their opponents in this game, the RedHawks have been mostly nondescript this season, going 4-5 both straight up and against the spread. After losing Gabbert in the opener, the offense really struggled without his presence in the lineup. Chuck Martin’s bunch is averaging just 19.4 points per game and they have continued to struggle upon Gabbert’s return two weeks ago.

After scoring a measly 10 points in a loss to Western Michigan, Miami managed just 268 yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play against a dreadful Akron defense last week. The offense converted just two-of-13 third downs against the Zips and the RedHawks were outgained by 130 yards as Gabbert continues to shake off the rust.

Coming off a fantastic 2021 season, Miami currently averages the fewest total yards in the MAC, putting up fewer than 300 yards per game. Last in the conference with 149.3 passing yards per game, the RedHawks struggle with efficiency, averaging only 6.3 yards per pass attempt with a 55.8 completion rate, leading to the worst third-down efficiency (29.6%) in the MAC this season.

Averaging only 19.4 points per game, the second-fewest in the conference, the offense certainly has its question marks coming into Tuesday night. Miami’s defense, however, has been excellent all season, and they will need to be on their A game in a matchup with Rourke and Co.

Leading the MAC in scoring defense and yielding only 21.4 points per game, Miami also has the best rushing defense in the conference, giving up only 107.8 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. The RedHawks give up only 348.0 total yards per game, second-best in the MAC, with strengths also in their passing defense.

Opponents are completing only 60.2% of pass attempts against the RedHawks, with Miami only allowing 6.6 yards per attempt with 11 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. While it’s surely a tough matchup against Rourke and Ohio’s lethal passing game, Miami should benefit by facing a Bobcats offense that ranks in the bottom three of the MAC with 122.4 rushing yards per game, including only 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Ohio-Miami (OH) Prediction

The masses are in love with Ohio in this spot, with the Bobcats currently hauling in 83% of the bets and 63% of the money placed on this game. Given how good they have looked recently, it comes as no surprise that as a short-favorite against an underperforming Miami team, Ohio is getting all the love here.

As Lee Corso would say, however, not so fast my friends, as it seems that after weeks of being undervalued, the Bobcats are now being overvalued with the opposite being true of Miami. Look for Gabbert to bring back memories of last year as the RedHawks get a crucial win to keep them alive for a Bowl game.

Best NCAAF Bets: Miami (OH) +2.5 (-112, FanDuel)

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