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San Diego State vs. Boise State Odds & Prediction: Taylen Green Leads Revamped Broncos Offense (September 30)

Coming off a loss to UTEP as 16.5-point favorites last week, Boise State will look to bounce back at home when they host San Diego State on Friday in a Mountain West Conference game. Following that stunning loss to UTEP, Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal, while the Broncos also fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. With a fresh start at both quarterback and offensive coordinator, Vegas still likes Boise State in this spot, as they are giving close to a touchdown to the Aztecs on Friday.

Much like the Broncos, San Diego State has been very up-and-down this season, and while they managed to hang on and beat Toledo 17-14 last week, the Aztecs offense was mostly uninspiring. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister has been a huge disappointment for Brady Hoke’s squad, and if San Diego State has any chance of coming home from Boise with a win, Burmeister and the rest of the offense will need to play much better.

San Diego State vs. Boise State Predictions and Betting Picks

Prior to the season, Boise State brought in former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter as an offensive analyst to try to improve what was an inconsistent Broncos inconsistent offense. After firing Plough and watching Bachmeier transfer, however, the word out of Boise is that Koetter is now running the entire offense his way. With 6-foot-6 quarterback Taylen Green taking over, Koetter has chosen to simplify the signal-caller’s job at the line of scrimmage and make the reads and checks at the line easier as Green makes his first career start.

Green was definitely more solid than spectacular in that game, throwing for 155 yards while completing 19 of his 27 passes for no touchdowns and one interception. With a week under his belt as the starting quarterback and with Koetter running the show, however, expect a much better performance Friday night against the Aztecs. While the Broncos probably won’t have a ton of success running the ball against a stout San Diego State front, Green’s ability to stretch out plays has Boise State head coach Andy Avalos gushing when speaking about his new quarterback:

“He brings another element to the field,” Avalos told reporters earlier this month. “There are not of a lot of quarterbacks, especially on our roster, that have the ability to extend plays with their legs the way he does.”

San Diego State Passing Struggles

While the excitement for the Koetter/Green combination in Boise is real, the same cannot be said for San Diego State and Burmeister, as the transfer from Virginia Tech leads one of the worst passing offenses in the country. Burmeister’s season-long numbers are dreadful, as he’s thrown for just 230 yards on 65 attempts (3.6 yards per attempt), two touchdowns and two interceptions. It’s no surprise the Aztecs rank dead last in the country in passing success rate, and if San Diego State gets stuck behind the chains, Burmeister and company have almost no chance of converting in obvious passing-down situations.

In spite of Burmeister and the passing game struggles, San Diego State has been decent on the ground, ranking 49th in rushing success rate despite missing star running back Chance Bell for basically the entire season. Bell has 12 carries for 47 yards in total, and though he has yet to get going, he’s a huge X-factor in San Diego State’s success on Friday night. Backup Jordan Byrd was really good last week, with 16 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Toledo, but having Bell back is huge in this matchup, as the passing game cannot be relied upon.

San Diego State vs Boise State Prediction

While its rushing attack is certainly formidable and getting Bell back only helps their cause, it’s very hard to run on Boise State defense, especially at home. San Diego State just barely ranks in the top 50 in rushing success rate, and the Broncos defense ranks top 30 in both rushing success rate allowed and defensive line yards. This is not a good recipe for a San Diego State offense that has one of the worst passing offenses in the country.

With a low total of 39 and Boise State currently a 6.5-point favorite at most books, Vegas doesn’t expect much from San Diego State in this spot. Even with major changes across its offense, this is a good bounce-back spot for Avalos and the Broncos with Green and Koetter leading the way. The Broncos will easily cover the number, winning by at least a touchdown.

Best NCAAF Bets: Boise State -6.5

Don’t forget to check out Stokastic’s CFB DFS articles too!

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