The SMU Mustangs head to Orlando to take on the UCF Golden Knights on Wednesday evening. This Week 5 NCAAF game was pushed back due to Hurricane Ian but the “Bounce House” should still be as crazy as ever for this one.
SMU comes in looking to right the ship after losing their last two games of the season, albeit to Power 5 schools. Their losing streak includes a loss to a TCU squad that destroyed Oklahoma a week ago. Meanwhile, UCF got back on track last week after their loss to Louisville, moving to 3-1 on the season.
There’s a lot to analyze in this one in order to figure out the best bet.
SMU vs. UCF College Football Week 6 Picks & Predictions
SMU Struggling to Out-Score Poor Defenses
The Mustangs have a dynamic, explosive offense that is averaging over 500 total yards per game. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai has already tossed for 1400 yards on the year, averaging a touch over 350 per contest. Returning wideout Rashee Rice is heading up their big-time receiving core (34 receptions, 565 yards, 16.6 YPR, 4 TD) and he’s been complemented nicely by Rice transfer Jake Bailey (12 receptions, 205 yards, 17.1 YPR, 1 TD).
https://twitter.com/ftbeard7/status/1573727463829426176?s=21&t=-WSfls1oSXek70cr3Csxrw
The Mustang’s passing efficiency is there, too. This offense is clicking on all cylinders and has scored against a number of solid defenses, including putting up 34 points on TCU.
Unfortunately, they’re constantly having to out-score their own defense — specifically, the rush defense. Maryland and TCU combined for 416 rushing yards and five scores against the Mustangs. Both games resulted in shoot-out losses.
That kind of defense doesn’t bode well against UCF.
Central Florida’s Strong Rushing Attack
The Golden Knights can definitely run the football. The Knights have a top 15 offensive line that ranks highly in both Line Yards and PFF’s Pass Blocking grades. The Knights are top 25 in Rush Success Rate behind that unit, currently rushing for over 275 yards per game.
A big part of those results is the play of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. He’s not only the starting quarterback, but Plumlee also leads the team in rushing (404 yards) and YPC (5.9). He has thrown for 300 and rushed for 100 in two separate games this season, both being dominant wins.
The stuff Plumlee can do on the field is insane.
JOHN RHYS PLUMLEE MY GOODNESS ? @UCF_Football pic.twitter.com/YuGQ98Xt7B
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 18, 2022
With Plumlee leading the charge, the Knights should have no issue plowing through a weak SMU front seven. They are likely to consistently move the chains while also picking up big chunk yardage due to SMU’s poor tackling.
That being said, Plumlee has trouble using his arm. After a 300-yard, four-touchdown, zero interception performance against South Carolina State, he’s played horrendously, having just one touchdown to three interceptions — including one in each game — and was held under 130 yards passing twice.
That likely won’t matter against SMU, given that the Mustangs essentially beg opposing offenses to run the ball. The Knights rush at a top 15 rate nationally, around two-thirds of the time.
Furthermore, the UCF defense matches up well with SMU’s offense. The Knights have a strong pass defense and are very strong at getting to the quarterback. They’re also one of the better red-zone defenses in the nation, stiffening up when need be. That’s a Gus Malzahn specialty, of course.
SMU vs UCF Pick
While this could be a buy-low spot for SMU and a sell-high spot for UCF. It could also be a good spot to target the underdog because of the high variance between two high-motor offenses.
This could also be a good spot to target the over considering these two high-motor offenses.
But there are two problems here.
The Mustangs and Knights are a combined 2-6 to the Over this season.
I just can’t get over how good a matchup this is for Central Florida. The rush offense will smoke SMU’s front seven, who cannot stop the rush and perform much better against the pass. If they stack the box, it’s not like Plumlee can’t throw.
Meanwhile, the Mustangs are going up a top-10 FBS secondary. This unit returned everyone, made additions, and is coached by Malzahn. Mordecai is a great quarterback, but I think he finally struggles in the Bounce House. Neither TCU nor Maryland have pass rush units like the Knights.
I don’t love this angle, but the Knights are definitely the play here. I wouldn’t buy it over a field goal.
Best NCAAF Bet: UCF -3 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook | Buy to -3 (-110)
