The AAC is in a weird spot. Tulane is nationally ranked and alone atop the conference, and Houston and SMU are barely treading water. At the bottom, the only team ranked below Tulsa and Temple is South Florida.
Alas, the football gods gave us this Friday night primetime game between two teams near the cellar of the conference.
Temple is a two-touchdown home underdog. It’s worth mentioning they are 3-0 ATS at home this season, but 1-4 ATS as a home dog since last year. Where does the value lie with the Owls?
Tulsa was severely overvalued pre-season and is now 1-3 ATS as a favorite. Can we still find value in fading the Golden Hurricane?
Tulsa vs. Temple College Football Week 8 Picks & Predictions
Tough Year for Tulsa
Tulsa is now 24-40 underneath coach Philip Montgomery. Despite gradual improvements year-over-year under Montgomery, the Hurricane have fallen significantly short of expectations in 2022.
Tulsa started the season by dropping an overtime game to the horrendous Wyoming Cowboys. The Hurricane then picked up underwhelming wins over Northern Illinois and FCS Jacksonville State.
Tulsa has lost three straight games since then by a combined score of 119-71. While Tulsa showed signs of life against Cincinnati and Ole Miss, the Hurricane recently suffered a 30-point loss to Navy as six-point favorites.
However, Tulsa is also coming off a bye. Perhaps that will jump-start this team
Tulsa has a halfway decent passing offense. Quarterback Davis Brin is completing over 60% of his passes for over nine YPA, with a 14:5 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s benefitted from having wideout Keylon Stokes back. Stokes is on pace for 90 receptions, 1500 yards and eight scores after playing in just three games last year.
This clip highlights Stokes’ explosiveness.
Keylon Stokes 76 yards ??#AmericanFB x @TulsaFootball pic.twitter.com/vhHcumT5ha
— American Football (@American_FB) October 8, 2022
Unfortunately, there is no other part of this Tulsa team that is promising.
The offensive line is one of the worst pass-blocking units in the conference, leading Brin to be sacked as much as any other quarterback (9.2%, 117th nationally). In addition, the whole rushing unit is averaging just 3.1 YPC and just 100 rushing yards per game.
Meanwhile, the run defense allows 240 yards per game at over five YPC. The defense can’t get off the field on standard downs and they break down in the red zone (126th in Points per Opportunity allowed).
Temple Doesn’t Fair Much Better
Lucky for Tulsa, Temple’s offense is the worst rushing unit in the league, literally. They rank 131st in Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that is 129th in Line Yards. There’s not a single advanced statistic where Temple ranks lower than 89th.
Temple has cycled through three quarterbacks this season, and none have had any success. The Owls are averaging 2.6 YPC and is truly a bottom-five offense in college football.
The offense finally got into gear against UCF, putting up back-to-back sustained drives that ended in points. Temple was up 10-0 at one point and down 14-13 midway through the second quarter. The Owls were then outscored 56-0 by John Rhys Plumlee and company, resulting in a 70-13 defeat.
It was unfortunate because the defense had played well up until that point, not just in the UCF game but in the season as a whole. Temple had produced a top-50 rush defense and still ranks top 25 in creating Havoc.
The only weak spot on the Temple defense, relatively speaking, is the pass rush. It’s good that the Tulsa pass-blocking unit is just as poor.
Tulsa vs Temple Betting Pick
In the end, neither of these offenses should move the ball consistently.
Temple’s defensive strengths negate Tulsa’s offensive strengths. Tulsa’s defense has no strengths, but neither does Temple’s offense.
This should turn into a slog of a game, barely worth watching. However, the under is the best play in that type of game.
I actually make this total closer to 48 than 53, and I feel good playing the under at 51.5 or better.
Best NCAAF Bet: Under 52.5 (-107) at PointsBet | Buy to 51.5 (-110)
