After three games of the college football season, there is a good sample size of gam plans and which teams likely don’t have a chance at conference titles or the college football playoff. Colorado is one of those teams after an 0-3 start. They have been bad — really bad. The talent just isn’t there this year, as they stand to be the only Pac-12 team without a pre-season All-Conference player.
Meanwhile, UCLA is looking to go 4-0 in what could present an interesting matchup against No. 18 Washington next week. They are led by Senior All-Conference running back Zach Charbonnet, who rushed for 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2021. This season he is averaging 5.6 yards on 34 carries but is nursing an injury. He was held out of their Week 2 win over Alabama State and left early last week after 13 carries with an undisclosed injury. He’s listed as questionable as of writing, so keep an eye on his status.
This is the first conference game for both teams. If UCLA wants to compete with the big boys, they’ll have to prove they can win the easy games, and that starts with Colorado. UCLA is favored by 21.5 points, while the game has a total of 57.5 points.
UCLA vs. Colorado Week 4 College Football Betting Picks
UCLA Offense
If Charbonnet is unable to go, UCLA has plenty of talent willing to step up. Senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a dual threat who scored 30 touchdowns and had over 3,000 all-purpose yards in 2021. He will get plenty of opportunities to run against a Colorado defense that has allowed 348 yards rushing a game, the most in college football. Thompson-Robinson isn’t the only Bruin that can take advantage of this poor run defense. Juniors Keegan Jones and Christian Grubb have 41 carries and more than 200 yards combined.
UCLA was on upset alert last week when two lost fumbles put them behind in the first half. They had to score 9 points and kick a last-minute field goal to seal the victory over South Alabama. Hopefully, they can hold onto the ball and utilize their big offensive line (11 players over 300 pounds) to run over the Buffaloes.
Colorado Offense
The Buffaloes defense is awful, but how does the offense compare? They have been forced to play from behind in every game and have scored a total of 30 points in three contests. Sophomore J.T. Shrout has only completed 40% of his passes for 4.2 yards per attempt, which sounds more like yards per carry than pass.
Running back Deion Smith has been solid, rushing for 159 yards on 28 carries, but if this offense is playing from behind, they’ll have to rely on a passing game that struggles. Daniel Arias leads the team in receptions with nine, and that’s not even in the top 20 in the Pac-12. Colorado’s 125 yards passing per game ranks 124th of 131 FBS teams. They’ll have to hope for good field position if they want to score some points in this one. UCLA is top 25 in total yards allowed and has only given up 18 points per game so far.
UCLA vs. Colorado Prediction
Colorado might win a game this year, but it’s not going to be this weekend. Even if Charbonnet sits this one out, UCLA has too much fire power with Thompson-Robinson running the show. The spread is big, and given the game is in Colorado with the high altitude, it could affect UCLA a bit. After last week’s scare from South Alabama, the spread is off the table. That said, UCLA is the better team and should win the game no problem, but a -1430 moneyline isn’t great odds.
Thompson-Robinson ran for at least 50 yards five times last year, including 98 yards against this Colorado team. Keep an eye on if Charbonnet plays, but assuming he’s out or limited, Thompson-Robinson should get to 51 yards rushing no problem.
NCAAF Best Bet: Thompson-Robinson OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
