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Western Kentucky vs. Indiana Odds & Prediction: Hilltoppers are a Strong Bet to Cover in Bloomington (September 17)

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have never been shy about airing the ball out. The team has one of the pass happiest offenses in the nation. Western Kentucky may have lost last year’s starting quarterback Bailey Zappe to the NFL, but they continue to throw at a high rate.

On the other hand, Indiana features a strong rushing attack behind starting ball carrier Shaun Shivers.

There is a lot to examine in this game between two teams with very different styles.

Western Kentucky vs. Indiana Predictions & Week 3 Picks

Western Kentucky vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Western Kentucky  Spread +6.5 (-110)
Indiana Spread -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 61.5
Location Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana
Time 12:00 PM EST
TV BTN

New QB Austin Reed Looks to Replace Zappe

The Hilltoppers started off the year with two easy contests against Austing Peay and Hawaii, respectively.  They scored in bunches in both of those games.

Quarterback Austin Reed came out throwing. He has 64 pass attempts so far and seven total touchdowns through the air. Reed has pushed the ball downfield, getting the ball to top targe, Daweood Davis. Davis has averaged 18.4 yards per catch.

Western Kentucky has had some trouble on the defensive side of the ball. They have struggled covering receivers, with cornerback Kahief Hailassie giving up 111 yards on eight catches so far this year. However, the Hilltoppers have had 41 quarterback pressures and eleven sacks, while also playing more stout defense against the run.

Expect the Hoosiers to Run the Football

The Hoosiers have had poor results through the air in their first two matchups. To be fair, they have had tougher opponents than Western Kentucky, facing off against Illinois and Idaho so far. Nevertheless, quarterback Connor Bazelak has done a poor job passing, despite having 81 attempts on 83 QB drop backs. He has completed just 54.3% of those passes, with three touchdowns to two interceptions.

The more successful aspect of Indiana’s offense has been their rushing attack, led by starter Shaun Shivers. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has five runs of 10 yards or more. 

The Hoosiers have been moderately successful on defense. Their best standout on that side of the ball is Cam Jones. Jones has been excellent to start the season, posting one sack, 13 tackles, no missed tackles and no yards allowed in coverage. 

Western Kentucky vs. Indiana Prediction

As 6.5-point underdogs, Western Kentucky plays in a way that doesn’t feed into the strengths of the Hoosiers. The competition has been different, but the Hilltoppers seemingly pass the ball better while the Hoosiers run the ball better. However, the Hilltoppers have been solid against the run this season, allowing only around three yards per carry.

Reed will frequent Davis deep, and Indiana may not have the guys to contain him enough times. 

Indiana is in a good position to pull off the win at home, but even on the moneyline, you shouldn’t count out the Hilltoppers. 

Best NCAAF Bet: Western Kentucky +6.5 (-110)

All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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