We’re one-third of the way through the season, not much has gone according to plan. We all expected the Bills to be very good this season, but did anyone expect New York to have three winning football teams at this point in the year? The Jets and Giants are a combined 9-3, and both teams have legit playoff aspirations.
Meanwhile, the teams that were considered the favorites in the NFC have looked largely mediocre. The Buccaneers, Rams, 49ers, and Packers all sit at 3-3, and it seems like the conference now runs through Philadelphia.
All those surprises have had a massive impact on the MVP market. Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into NFL Week 7.
2022 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
Riser: Josh Allen +200 to +150
Allen continues to pull slightly away from the rest of the pack. He engineered a late touchdown drive to give the Bills a four-point road victory against the Chiefs, which was one of the best wins of the season. The Bills and Chiefs appear to be head and shoulders above the rest of the AFC, so beating Kansas City in their own building was a massive statement.
Allen also had another fantastic statistical performance. He racked up 329 yards, three touchdown passes and added another 32 yards on the ground. Allen now leads the League in both passing yards and touchdowns, and his added work with his legs gives him the clear top case in the MVP race.
There’s still plenty of season left to go, but it’s hard to see Allen losing the MVP if he stays healthy. That’s obviously a big if, but the combination of his massive statistics and the Bills’ team success is going to be very hard to look past. It probably won’t be long until his odds dip below even money, so this might be your last chance to take him if you haven’t already done so.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Jalen Hurts +600 to +460
The Eagles continue to win games, with their most recent victory coming in prime time. They managed to defeat the Cowboys in an NFC East rivalry game by a score of 26-17. The Eagles remain the lone undefeated squad in football, and their upcoming schedule is favorable. Their next three games are against the Steelers, Texans, and Commanders, so they could cruise to 9-0.
Still, I remain unconvinced that Hurts can actually win the MVP. He did throw two touchdown passes against the Cowboys, but that still brings him to just six for the year. Can a quarterback win the MVP award with less than 30 touchdown passes, let alone 20? That remains to be seen. His six rushing scores do mitigate some of those concerns, but he’s so far behind Allen from a statistical standpoint that it’s going to be hard to catch up. Maybe the Eagles do something crazy like run the table, but barring that scenario, I’m fine with continuing to fade Hurts at his current price tag.
Recommendation: Sell
Riser: Joe Burrow +3500 to +3000
Most of the league is falling off behind the top group of passers, which includes Allen, Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. However, Burrow is inching slightly closer with his recent play. Burrow finished with 300 passing yards and three scores in a win over the Saints, and he added a rushing score for the second consecutive week.
Burrow’s biggest problem remains his offensive line. In weeks where they can protect him, Burrow is typically able to pick apart opposing secondaries with his elite receivers. When they can’t, Burrow ends up on his backside.
That makes Burrow’s Week 7 matchup vs. the Falcons very appealing. They rank just 23rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’re dead last in adjusted sack rate. Burrow should be able to post some monster numbers against this unit, so he could take another step forward this week. This is a nice opportunity to buy low, but keep in mind that you’re likely going to need an injury to Allen for this wager to be live.
Recommendation: Buy
Faller: Justin Herbert +1500 to +2200
Herbert was just on the outside of the elite MVP contenders heading into Week 6. He had a chance to make up some ground with a Monday Night Football matchup vs. the Broncos, but unfortunately, he struggled in that contest. He threw the ball 57 times, but he finished with 238 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception.
It’s hard to have so much volume with so little to show for it. He averaged just 3.39 adjusted yards per attempt, which was easily his worst mark of the year. He now sits at just 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt for the season, which ranks 15th at the position. That doesn’t bode well for his MVP chances.
The good news is that his struggles came against an elite defense, and he’s not going to have to face the Broncos every week. He draws one of the best possible matchups in Week 7, taking on a Seahawks defense that ranked last or close to last in virtually every metric before last week’s win over the Cardinals. I’d rather take a shot with Burrow in this price range, but I can’t fault you too much if you want to roll the dice with Herbert.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Kyler Murray +4000 to +8000
Speaking of the Cardinals, their performance vs. the Seahawks was one of the worst results of the season. Prior to last week’s matchup, the Seahawks had allowed an average of 430 yards per game, and they surrendered at least 27 points in each of their past four outings. They ranked dead last in yards per play as well, so their defense was easily the most exploitable in the league. With that in mind, the Cardinals’ nine-point, 315-yard performance was abominable.
The good news is that Murray will be getting his favorite target back this week. DeAndre Hopkins has officially finished serving his suspension, and his presence has made a noticeable impact in the Cardinals’ passing attack. Unfortunately, the guy who spent the first six weeks trying to replace Hopkins – Marquise Brown – just went down with an injury. That’s not exactly ideal.
Murray has posted basically career-worst numbers across the board, and without a full complement of weapons, it’s hard to see him turning things around.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Aaron Rodgers +4000 to +8000
The Packers currently sit at 3-3, but it feels like they’ve been much worse. They rank just 24th in points per game, and they suffered back-to-back losses to the Giants and Jets. The loss to the Jets even came at Lambeau Field, which is somewhere that teams used to fear playing. The Jets didn’t just win that game, they absolutely dominated, so no one is afraid of facing the Packers anymore.
Rodgers’ final numbers didn’t look terrible – 241 passing yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions – but he no longer has the elite efficiency numbers that made him a yearly MVP threat. Losing Davante Adams has been a killer for the passing attack, particularly on the deep ball. On balls traveling at least 20 yards downfield, Rodgers has completed just 27.6% of his attempts this season. He’s averaged just 8.2 yards per attempt after averaging 14.3 yards per attempt in that split last year.
At this point, it’s clear that Rodgers is not going to become the second player ever to win three straight MVPs. He’s a sell at any price tag.
Recommendation: Sell
