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Bears vs. Jets Prediction & Odds: New York’s New Starting QB Should Boost Conklin’s Play

Sunday’s matchup between the Bears and Jets may feature a pair of backup quarterbacks. The Jets have decided to bench Zach Wilson in favor of Mike White, and the Bears have listed Justin Fields as questionable. The latter’s status is in serious doubt given the Bear’s decision to elevate third-string quarterback Nathan Peterman from the practice squad. The Jets are slight home favorites in the NFL odds, and bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Bears-Jets predictions and picks. Bettors should check out our OddsShopper’s tools for even more smart NFL bets.

NFL Odds: Bears-Jets Odds

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Don’t Expect Fields on Sunday

The Chicago Bears probably won’t have Fields. Teams rarely activate their third-string quarterbacks from the practice squad if they expect their starter to be available, so bettors should approach this game as if backup Trevor Siemian is starting. Going from a dual-threat quarterback to a traditional pocket passer — Siemian has just 203 rushing yards in his career — will be a massive challenge for head coach Matt Eberflus.

Chicago’s solid offensive performances in advanced metrics are mostly meaningless without Fields and Khalil Herbert. The Bears had ranked 21st in offensive defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and 18th in yards per play (5.4). Their rushing offense had even ranked fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.02). Fields and Herbert had combined to generate a whopping 265 defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) on the ground. The Bears will struggle to replicate their solid offensive play without them.

The Bears will should struggle with Siemian under center, as well. Their inexperienced offensive line ranks last in adjusted sack rate (14.3%), and while some of that falls on Fields taking too long to throw the ball, opposing defenses had to worry about Fields’ rushing ability. The Bears won’t have that benefit any longer. Don’t expect the Jets to give Siemian much time to throw.

Chicago’s defense has not played well, especially lately. That regression makes sense, as the Bears parted ways with pass rusher Robert Quinn and linebacker Roquan Smith before the trade deadline. Chicago’s defense ranks 30th in defensive DVOA and 22nd in yards allowed per play. They rank 31st in EPA per pass (0.19) and 23rd n EPA in per run (-0.03). Their pass rush has generated pressure on just 20.2% of dropbacks, which ranks a lowly 23rd.

New York Rolling on Defense

The Jets will look better without Zach Wilson. Wilson had seriously struggled under pressure and completed only 55.6% of his passes this year, the fewest of any quarterback to attempt at least 125 passes this season. Mike White takes far fewer risks and completed 66.7% of his passes last year. He averaged only 5.9 intended air yards per attempt (IAY/A) last season, so bettors should expect plenty of high-percentage but short-yardage throws.

Robert Saleh’s offense has emphasized the run without sacrificing tempo. The Jets rank third in rushing play frequency (53.4%) and seventh in seconds per play (27.8). Their rushing game has been effective — the Jets rank 13th in EPA per rush (-0.04) — but the passing game has held them back. Wilson ranks fourth-worst among quarterbacks in EPA per play (-0.08). In contrast, White generated 0.06 EPA per play last year.

White may also get some help from returning offensive players. Right guard Nate Herbig missed last week’s contest but is available for Week 12. Rookie offensive tackle Max Mitchell is back from injured reserve and wide receiver Corey Davis has worked his way back from injury as well. The Jets remain banged up along the offensive line, but White completed an encouraging 56.1% of his passes while pressured last year. Wilson had completed just 26.7% of such throws this season.

New York’s defense is responsible for most of the team’s success. The Jets rank sixth in defensive DVOA and fourth in yards allowed per play (4.8). They held the Patriots to only three offensive points last week. They have fared slightly better against the pass — New York’s defense ranks sixth in EPA per pass (-0.04) but 11th in EPA per rush (-0.09) — but they can stop whatever gets thrown at them. New York’s pass rush also ranks an impressive fourth in pressure percentage (24.9%).

Final Bears-Jets Prediction & Pick

The sharps know Fields won’t play — this spread has moved from Jets -4.5 to Jets -7 since Friday. Unfortunately, bettors looking to get in late won’t find much value in doing so anymore. The total has also dropped from 48.5 to just 38.5. Bettors looking for a sharp angle and Bears-Jets pick should pivot to the player prop markets instead.

Mike White peppered his running backs and tight ends with short-yardage targets last season. Michael Carter Jr. averaged 5.5 targets and 60.5 receiving yards per game across the four games that White played in. Tight ends Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin combined to average 5.5 targets and 46.8 receiving yards per game with him under center.

As a result, bettors should target Tyler Conklin‘s receiving props. Carter has run just 15 routes over the last two weeks, and the Jets may want him to help out in pass protection. In contrast, the Jets brought Conklin in with the express intention of him working as a receiver, and he has run 31 routes over the last two games. Although Zach Wilson didn’t look his way as often as Joe Flacco, expect Conklin’s volume to increase moving forward.

Final Bears-Jets Pick: Tyler Conklin Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-113 for 1.13 Units) at FanDuel

Bears-Jets OddsShopper Model Prediction

OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 12 Bears-Jets matchup, the model has identified the first-half moneyline as the line to target at its current price.

Betting the Jets to win the first half yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to DraftKings for the best price on the market!

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