Two teams fighting to keep their NFL playoff hopes alive meet when the Arizona Cardinals host the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s a good time to check out our NFL odds series, which includes our Cardinals-Chargers prediction, odds and pick.
The Cardinals come into this game having lost nine of their past 10 home games, while the Chargers have won three of four on the road. The total is set at 48 points, and each of the Cardinals’ past five games has gone over the total. Defense has been optional for either, ranking 27th and 29th in points allowed at over 25.0 per game.
The Chargers are 2.5-point road favorites and have covered five straight road games. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is expected to start after sitting out the past two games with a hamstring injury.
About 80% of the bets have come in on the Chargers.
NFL Odds: Cardinals-Chargers Odds
Chargers: -2.5 (-115)
Cardinals: +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-115); Under 48.5 (-105)
Be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool for the best NFL odds.
Kennan Allen Helps Chargers Offense
The Chargers (5-5) are one game back from an AFC Wild Card berth and three games behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. With a relatively tough schedule ahead, the Chargers are entering near must-win category.
Getting back wide receiver Keenan Allen last week, even if it was only for 68% of the snaps, helped immensely. He had almost 100 receiving yards and was second on the team with eight targets in a 30-27 loss to Kansas City. WR Mike Williams is out again after returning last week but only playing six snaps before reaggravating his ankle injury.
Quarterback Justin Herbert was sacked a season-high five times but still completed a season-high 76.7% of his passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Herbert hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns since back to back weeks to start the season. This will be a great time to get back on track with the Cardinals ranking 22nd in pass DVOA and allowing 26.9 points per game, which ranks second-highest in the NFL.
WR Joshua Palmer has led the Chargers in targets in the past four games he has played and is coming off of his best game of the season, when he made eight catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns. RB Austin Ekeler leads the Chargers with four receiving touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns, and has 20 or more touches in five of his past six games.
The Chargers should have no trouble moving the ball against this poor defense, whether they do it through the air or on the ground. Getting over their 25.5 team total shouldn’t be a problem, even though they have done so in only three games this season.
Kyler Murray Back For Cardinals
The Cardinals (4-7) have lost five of their past seven games and have the second-worst point differential in the NFC at -56 points. With Murray expected to play for the first time in three weeks, they may be a little bit more competitive after scoring just 10 points with backup quarterback Colt McCoy on Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers.
Despite playing only nine games, Murray leads the Cardinals in rushing yards and has a chance to bounce back in this spot with the Chargers allowing 25.8 points per game, ranking 11th in pass DVOA and 30th in rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. That may open the door for more usage for running back James Conner, who has three touchdowns in the past two games but is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.
WR DeAndre Hopkins will be playing only his sixth game of the season but already leads the Cardinals in receiving yards at 97.4 per game. He has 12 or more targets in four of his five games. Expect the double-digit targets to continue with injuries to tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Rondale Moore. The connection between Murray and Hopkins is undeniable, and they will find a way to make this game competitive despite so many struggles at home.
Final Cardinals-Chargers Prediction & Pick
The Chargers rank 31st in pass rate, and the Cardinals rank 25th in pass rate. With these offenses getting healthier and the defenses continuing to struggle, Over 48 feels like the best bet in this game. These teams are allowing 52.7 points per game combined.
Even though the public is backing the Chargers, they have lost too many close games and are too difficult to trust. They held comfortable leads in back to back games but failed to close either. Instead take the over, as both offenses should have no trouble, especially with Murray expected to play.
Final Cardinals-Chargers Pick: Over 48 (-110, DraftKings)
