In a big primetime mismatch, the 4-7-1 Indianapolis Colts will head to Texas and face the 8-3 Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Although the Colts haven’t been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, their hopes are sitting on a razor’s edge. Meanwhile, an NFC Wild Card berth is the Cowboy’s to lose. Bettors looking for a positive return on Sunday nights action should tail these Colts-Cowboys predictions and picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NFL Odds: Colts-Cowboys Odds
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Can Saturday Get Indy’s Offense Going?
The Indianapolis Colts haven’t done much well this season. They have fired their head coach and replaced him with a former player. That now-fired coach even benched their starting quarterback, Matt Ryan, for an unproven Sam Ehlinger. The Colts rank a lowly 30th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
Few teams have played less efficiently on offense than the Colts. Indianapolis ranks 31st in offensive DVOA, ahead of only the Houston Texans. There is a wider gap between the Colts and the 30th-ranked Carolina Panthers than between the Panthers and the 24th-ranked Saints. Their offense ranks only 27th in yards per play (4.9) behind a rushing offense that ranks 31st in expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.21) and a passing offense that ranks 29th (-0.11). Their offensive line ranks 31st in pass-block win rate.
Jeff Saturday’s hiring has given the Colts a slight boost on offense, albeit not much of one. The rushing offense ranks 21st in EPA per play since Week 10 (-0.13), while the passing offense ranks 24th in EPA per play (0.01). Saturday’s adjustments have been enough for the Colts to beat the Raiders and keep things close against the Eagles and Steelers, but the offense has still averaged only 19.3 points per game.
The struggling offense has wasted some surprisingly efficient play by the defense. The Colts rank 13th in defensive DVOA and sixth in yards allowed per play (4.9). Their rushing defense ranks seventh in EPA per play (-0.11), while their passing defense ranks 10th in EPA per play (0.02). The Colts have even allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers this year (119.2).
Cowboys Shutting Down the Pass
In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys have done plenty of things well this season. They rank fourth in total DVOA behind their NFL-leading defense. The Cowboys have built the league’s best pass rush and lead the way in pressure percentage (30.2%), which has given them a massive edge over opposing offenses. The unit leads the NFL in sacks per game (4.1) by 0.8. Dallas’ defense ranks third in EPA per dropback (-0.11), one of the nine units with a negative number in the metric.
That said, the Cowboys’ defense has been vulnerable to the run. Losses to the Packers and Eagles came because they couldn’t stop their opponents on the ground. The Dallas defense ranks a concerning 20th in EPA per rush (-0.05) and 25th in yards per rush attempt (4.7). The Cowboys have given up the ninth-most rushing yards per game this year (131.9).
Dallas’ offense hasn’t fared nearly as well as its defense. The Cowboys only rank 15th in offensive DVOA and 12th in yards per play (5.6). Their passing offense ranks only 13th in EPA per play (0.08), and although Dak Prescott ranks an impressive third in net yards per attempt (NY/A) with 7.16, he ranks 33rd in interception frequency among 35 quarterbacks to attempt at least 150 passes (3.3%). He has thrown 2.5 interceptable passes per game.
However, the Cowboys have found an edge on the ground. Their rushing defense ranks a solid seventh in EPA per play (0) and 14th in yards per rush attempt (4.6). The offensive line deserves plenty of credit — the unit ranks sixth in run-block win rate and seventh in line yards. Running back Tony Pollard leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (YAC/A) with 3, nearly twice what his 34th-ranked teammate, Ezekiel Elliott, has generated (1.6).
Final Colts-Cowboys Prediction & Pick
The Colts and Cowboys should play a relatively slow, non-competitive game. Dallas has a massive edge on offense, and its pass rush should light up Matt Ryan, an immobile, rigid quarterback playing behind an oft-brutalized offensive line. Yet the total for this game sits at a surprisingly lofty 44.5, under which 56.89% of NFL games stayed between 2018 and 2021.
Bettors can play the standard total, but playing a total and moneyline parlay at BetMGM offers slightly more value. Tease the total up to 47.5, which 67% of games stayed under between 2018 and 2021, and back the Cowboys to win for a bet with odds of +100.
The Cowboys have moneyline odds of -550 (84.6%), and the alternate under is -160 (61.5%), so MGM’s own calculations should give this play odds of -108 (52%). Fortunately, bettors can instead buy it in the plus money.
Final Colts-Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys Moneyline/Under 47.5 (+100) at BetMGM
Colts-Cowboys OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives. Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Sunday Night Football Colts-Cowboys matchup, the model has identified Matt Ryan as a player to buy at his current price.
Betting the over on Ryan’s total pass completions yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to Caesars for the best price on the market.
