OddsShopper
ArticlesVideosExpert PicksPromotions
HomeFree ToolsPremium ToolsOffersAccount
Categories NFL

Colts vs. Broncos Betting Odds & Prediction: Jeudy a Strong Bet to Go Over Receiving Yards Prop on TNF (October 6)

The Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos each had an eventful Week 5. The Colts lost star linebacker Shaquille Leonard to a concussion and running back Jonathan Taylor to an ankle injury. The Broncos lost star pass rusher Randy Gregory and running back Javonte Williams to knee injuries. All of those players have already been ruled out of Thursday Night Football. The sportsbooks are predicting that the Broncos will top the Colts by around a 3- to 3.5-point margin.

Despite losing Williams and Gregory, Denver still has a solid core. They rank 15th in overall defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). The Colts rank dead last in that metric. Adjustments for early-season variance would only bump the Colts up to 29th and leave the Broncos at 15th.

Colts vs. Broncos Week 5 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions

Colts vs. Broncos Betting Odds

Colts Offense Struggling, Defense Vulnerable in Slot

The Colts haven't looked great, but there are some silver linings. An atrocious Week 2 loss to the Jaguars is forgivable since both of Matt Ryan's best receivers, Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, sat out with injuries. They then beat the Chiefs, an early Super Bowl favorite, in Week 3. In Week 4, Taylor struggled with injuries and the offensive line failed to help him -- Taylor averaged 0.8 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/A). Still, the Colts forced four straight punts and routinely drove into Tennessee territory (only to punt, fumble and miss a field goal).

The Colts just haven't gotten enough out of Ryan and Taylor. Part of the problem falls on their offensive line. Taylor has averaged only 4 yards per carry (YPC) despite getting 2.6 YBC/A. He averaged 5.5 YPC on 2.6 YBC/A last season. Ryan has completed a respectable 66.2% of his passes for five touchdowns at only 5.96 net yards per attempt (NY/A). He has already taken 15 sacks and thrown five interceptions. Ryan has faced pressure on 26% of his dropbacks, ninth highest among eligible quarterbacks.

These issues have caused the offense to rank a dismal 25th in yards per play (5). Star left guard Quenton Nelson is yet to return to his pre-injury form. Right guard Danny Pinter, who started Weeks 1 through 3, got benched for Will Fries last week, but neither has shown much -- Pinter owns a PFF grade of 50.5, and Fries owns one of 38.7.

The Colts defense has played better than their offense despite Leonard's injury struggles. The Colts rank 13th in defensive DVOA and sixth in yards allowed per play (4.8). The defensive line has given up the third-fewest adjusted line yards as well. Still, the front has seven sacks all season, and the unit ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate.

Slot receivers proved problematic for the Indianapolis defense early in the year, as Houston's Chris Moore, Jacksonville's Christian Kirk and Kansas City's JuJu Smith-Schuster all recorded impressive numbers. That said, the Colts held Kyle Phillips without a catch in Week 4.

Injuries Will Force Broncos Offense to Adjust

The Broncos look decent but have earned plenty of unwelcome attention. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett's gaffes against the Seahawks and Texans nearly earned Denver an 0-2 start. The Broncos beat a good San Francisco team in Week 3, but then lost to the 0-3 Raiders in Week 4. Denver surrendered three consecutive field goals but scored a touchdown to make it close again , only to then gave up a game-sealing score to Josh Jacobs. Broncos running back Melvin Gordon, who enters Week 5 as the featured back, fumbled for the fourth time this season. He has touched the ball only 45 times.

Russell Wilson and the offense haven't lived up to the offseason hype. He has completed only 61.1% of his passes for four scores and 6.33 NY/A. Wilson has yet to finish a season with a lower completion percentage, and he finished with fewer NY/A just once. Nevertheless, Wilson can deflect some of the blame onto his offensive line -- he has faced pressure on 29.1% of his dropbacks, which ranks third highest among eligible quarterbacks. Wilson has completed only 37.5% of his throws when under pressure. Courtland Sutton has been a bright spot -- he ranks third in defense-adjusted yards above replacement among wide receivers with at least 16 targets -- but that's about it. Williams and Gordon rank 29th and 34th, respectively, among the 39 running backs with at least 32 carries in DYAR.

Denver's defense has looked surprisingly solid despite key absences. Star safety Justin Simmons landed on injured reserve after Week 1. Linebacker and leading tackler Josey Jewell missed Weeks 1 and 2 with an injury but has recovered nicely. The Broncos still rank eighth in defensive DVOA and eighth in yards allowed per play (4.7). That said, the defensive front ranks a putrid 28th in adjusted line yards. Denver has generally fared better against the pass -- the unit's 11 sacks earn them an 11th-place ranking in adjusted sack rate, and the Broncos rank fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.3). However, now that Gregory, who leads the team in quarterback hits, has landed on injured reserve, this unit could deteriorate.

Colts vs. Broncos Prediction

Backing the Colts at +3.5 feels sharp, but the Broncos could play a close game against the Colts all night and still cover that spread. Bettors looking to get action on the Colts should do it soon to ensure that number doesn't tick onto the key number of 3. That said, a player prop offers more value for Thursday night's contest.

Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is averaging 5.3 targets per game. Though he has caught only 11 of those passes, his average depth of target (12.3) means he doesn't need to catch every pass to put up big numbers. Jeudy played a season-high 87.5% of the snaps last weekend and should see more usage moving forward as Denver must shift away from the running game. Buying the Over on his receiving yards props is a sharper bet than the spread, especially because Jeudy spends 50.3% of his snaps in the slot, a spot the Colts have struggled to defend this year.

Colts vs. Broncos Prediction: Jerry Jeudy Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at DraftKings

Colts vs. Broncos OddsShopper Model Prediction

OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Colts and Broncos, the model has identified Matt Ryan as a player to fade at his current price.

Betting the under on Matt Ryan's passing touchdowns yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!

Featured Articles

Related Articles