The Indianapolis Colts got off to another slow start in Week 1 this year, extending a winless streak that now dates back to 2013. They now head to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that almost beat the Washington Commanders in Week 1. The sportsbooks predict that the Colts will top the Jaguars by three, but the player prop markets offer more betting value for the Week 2 matchup.
With Indianapolis pivoting to another veteran option at quarterback in Matt Ryan, analysts expected more out of the Colts this year, especially with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. But with the Jacksonville Jaguars adding a new head coach, Doug Pederson, to work with sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the perennial bottom-dwellers might just have a solid bounce-back season in store.
Colts vs. Jaguars Week 2 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Colts vs. Jaguars Betting Odds
Colts Banged Up Heading Into Week 2
The Indianapolis Colts scored only three points before the fourth quarter in Week 1. Three of their first seven drives ended in turnovers -- one on downs at the goal line, one on an interception in Houston territory and one on a fumble in Houston territory. The turnover on downs came after an end-zone drop by rookie wideout Alec Pierce. That said, the Colts recorded an impressive 516 yards of offense on a solid 5.7 yards per play. Indianapolis was the much better team mathematically and would've won but for sloppy mistakes by Ryan, Pierce and kicker Rodrigo Blankenship.
Aside from the turnovers, Ryan looked solid, and running back Jonathan Taylor still looked great. Ryan completed 64% of his passes and recorded 6.53 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Taylor averaged 5.2 yards per carry (YPC) and found the end zone once. Third-year wideout Michael Pittman also looked great and caught nine passes on 13 targets for 121 yards and a score. Unfortunately, the Colts have listed him as questionable for Week 2. Indianapolis' offensive line looked solid as well. Ryan was pressured on only 18.5% of his dropbacks, and star guard Quenton Nelson gave up just one pressure on 54 pass-blocking snaps.
The defense also fared reasonably well despite the absence of star linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who remains out in Week 2. The defensive line limited Houston to only 77 rushing yards on 2.8 YPC. The pass rush pressured Davis Mills on 22.5% of his dropbacks and forced three sacks. Defensive linemen Kwity Paye, Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner all earned PFF grades of 80-plus in Week 1, although Houston's beleaguered offensive line may have helped. That said, Buckner is questionable for Week 2.
Jaguars Played Well, Came up Short
After spending a rocky year with Urban Meyer as head coach last season, Jacksonville Jaguars fans got a much more respectable performance in Week 1. Jacksonville kept things close against Washington and had a chance to win until a costly fourth-quarter interception. Running back James Robinson played well despite coming off a torn Achilles, and sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence flashed the talent that got him drafted first overall in 2021.
The Jaguars have several causes for optimism on offense. Lawrence completed a shaky 57.1% of his passes but recorded 5.9 NY/A, a step up from the 5.37 NY/A he recorded last season. Wide receiver Christian Kirk, who the Jaguars signed to a massive $72 million contract in the offseason, caught six passes for 117 yards. Running backs Robinson and Travis Etienne combined to average 7.53 YPC as well. That said, Week 1 wasn't perfect. Lawrence threw nine bad passes and an interception. The offensive line allowed Lawrence to face pressure on 24.4% of his dropbacks.
Jacksonville's defense leaves much to be desired. Washington's versatile running back, Antonio Gibson, had his way against the Jaguars after a terrible training camp. He totaled 130 all-purpose yards on 21 touches and recorded 4.1 YPC. Jacksonville's defensive front blitzed Carson Wentz 15 times but came up with only one sack and four pressures, giving them a pressure rate of just 8.9%. The defense surrendered 390 total yards, which ranks eighth-worst among teams that didn't go into overtime.
Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been trending up as a function of the injury news out of Indianapolis. Jacksonville opened as a 4.5-point underdog, after drawing 67% of the money on just 42% of the tickets, the Jaguars are now just a 3-point or 3.5-point underdog. Unfortunately, bettors looking to tail the sharps now won't find as much value in doing so.
Fortunately, plenty of value remains on the player prop markets. Slot wideout Christian Kirk hauled in six of his 12 targets for 117 yards last week, but his receiving yardage prop sits at just 58.5. The Colts and slot cornerback Kenny Moore allowed Houston's slot receiver, Chris Moore, to catch all three of his targets for 31 yards last week. With Moore banged up and the Jaguars expected to play from behind, expect more of the same from Kirk in Week 2.
Colts vs. Jaguars Player Prop Prediction: Christian Kirk Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at BetMGM
