The 3-0 Miami Dolphins and 1-2 Cincinnati Bengals will meet in Ohio on this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football. The undefeated Dolphins have exceeded everyone’s expectations thus far, with wins over the Patriots, Ravens and Bills. In contrast, the Bengals haven’t looked like the team that went to the Super Bowl just a year ago — the team has already lost to the Mitch Trubisky Steelers and the Cooper Rush Cowboys. Still, sportsbooks predict the Bengals will beat the Dolphins by a 4-point margin on Thursday Night Football.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa might be the biggest surprise of the season. He ranks second in total passing yards and third in passing touchdowns after three weeks, trailing only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. But a mid-game back injury nearly knocked Tagovailoa out of last week’s contest, and the star quarterback is questionable for Thursday.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Dolphins vs. Bengals Betting Odds
Miami's Success Likely Isn't Sustainable
Miami enters Week 4 after a two-point win over the Buffalo Bills. Although Allen threw for 400 yards and two scores against Miami, the Dolphins defense forced the Bills offense to take its time on multiple drives. Buffalo's offense got the ball four times and had possession for 73.1% of the second half, but the unit scored just three points. The Bills missed 38-yard field goal, turned the ball over on downs near the goal line and didn't have time to spike the ball on their final fourth-quarter drive.
The Dolphins have played slightly worse than their record suggests. Miami ranks only 11th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). That said, the offense ranks second in the metric behind strong play from Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle, who ranks second in total receiving yards and has averaged 18 yards per catch. Waddle racked up 77 yards on Miami's only second-half scoring drive on a pair of deep passes from Tagovailoa. Seeing the two continue to play well after Tagovailoa's back injury should reassure Dolphins backers heading into Thursday night. Still, Miami's offensive line has allowed Tagovailoa to face pressure on 27.4% of his dropbacks, which could complicate things after this injury. The offensive line has also struggled to generate rushing lanes, as it ranks 30th in adjusted line yards.
Unlike the offense, Miami's defense has underperformed. The Bills would have won last week if not for some late-game bad luck, and the Ravens scored 38 points and led by 21 heading into the fourth quarter in Week 2. The defense ranks 24th in DVOA, 27th in yards allowed per play (6.3) and 29th in opponent third-down conversion rate (48.7%). With star cornerback Xavien Howard, defensive tackle Raekwon Davis and starting safeties Brandon Jones and Jevon Holland all dealing with various injuries heading into Week 4, Miami's defense might look gassed on a short week.
Cincinnati's Offense and Secondary Look Beatable
The 2022 Cincinnati Bengals had lost two games to quarterbacks who served as backups last season entering Week 3, but they ended that streak with a road win over Joe Flacco and the New York Jets. Cincinnati went up early and never trailed. Still, the Bengals must make significant improvements if they are to return to the Super Bowl. The team ranks 20th in total DVOA.
Surprisingly, Joe Burrow and the offense have been a bigger issue than the defense. Burrow has completed only 64% of his passes for six touchdowns and 5.2 net yards per attempt. He has thrown four picks and taken an NFL-high 15 sacks. While Burrow's decision-making hasn't been great, the offensive line may deserve most of the blame. The star quarterback has faced pressure on 25.5% of his dropbacks, a 1% increase from last year, and the unit ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate. The unit also ranks 29th in adjusted line yards, so it hasn't been much help to Joe Mixon, either -- the star running back has gotten only 2.1 yards before contact per carry.
Cincinnati's defense has done its best to make up for a struggling offense. The Bengals rank seventh in defensive DVOA but 31st in offensive DVOA. The unit has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per play (4.8) and the 10th-lowest third-down conversion percentage (32.7%). The defensive line has allowed the 11th-fewest adjusted line yards as well. While poor opposing offensive play may account for those solid numbers, the Bengals should at least be encouraged about their play in the trenches, although the injury to nose tackle D.J. Reader could hurt them against the run. Opposing passing attacks have been the bigger issue for Cincinnati, as the Bengals rank 26th in adjusted sack rate and have a gaping hole in the secondary: boundary cornerback Eli Apple. He owns a PFF grade of just 58.6, well below fellow boundary cornerback Chidobe Awuzie's 74.4 and nickel cornerback Mike Hilton's 76.2.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Prediction
Wide receiver Tyreek Hill called out cornerback Eli Apple in advance of Thursday's matchup. Tagovailoa doubled down on Hill's trash talk by saying he intends to get Hill the ball if he is covered 1-on-1. Apple's teammates stood up for Apple, but they won't always be able to bail him out on Thursday night. Still, it's worth noting that Hill didn't light the Bengals up last year -- he caught six passes for 40 yards in their regular-season meeting and seven passes for 78 yards and a score in their playoff meeting.
Hill finds himself in a much better position for this contest. The Chiefs used Hill in the slot on 37.8% of his snaps last year, but the Dolphins have used him there just 20% of the time. That should keep Hill away from Mike Hilton, who successfully limited Hill in the regular season last year. With teammate Jaylen Waddle a little bit banged up, Hill is in a prime bounce-back spot after last week's two-catch, 33-yard performance against the Bills. Tagovailoa showed enough poise to get the ball downfield after his back injury last weekend, so don't let that deter you from buying a slight dip on Hill for Thursday Night Football -- his yardage total closed at 74.5 last weekend.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Prediction: Tyreek Hill Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Dolphins vs. Bengals OddsShopper Model Prediction
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