The Tennessee Titans come into this Week 13 battle 2.5 games up in their division while the Philadelphia Eagles are just two games up in their own division but have the best record in the NFL.
The Titans have been able to survive in games this season as they have only lost one game by more than four points. With that said, they have not beaten anyone by more than 10 points all year.
The Eagles had been on fire until running into the Washington Commanders on national television in Week 10. Philadelphia did cover against the Packers last week, but the shine isn’t as bright as it was earlier in the season.
Narratives will be at play as well in what will be A.J. Brown‘s first game back in Tennessee after he was traded in the offseason while the Titans will look to feature rookie Treylon Burks, who was selected with they pick they received in the trade.
The following analyzes the game with an expert Titans-Eagles prediction and picks. For more great bets this NFL Week 13 check out our OddsShopper tools and content.
NFL Odds: Titans-Eagles Odds
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Will The Titans Be Able To Run All Over The Eagles?
The big question is if the Titans will be able to run all over this Eagles defense. Derrick Henry has once again proved how important he is to this team as the Titans are 6-0 when he has at least 132 total yards this season.
The Titans don’t have the best DVOA statistics this season, but their scripted portions of games have gone extremely well. They rank 19th in offense DVOA, but some of those statistics are held down from the two games when rookie QB Malik Willis started under center.
The Eagles are going to be without defensive end Robert Quinn and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson which will only make trying to stop Henry that much more difficult. Philadelphia continues to get shredded by running backs and are allowing over 120 rushing yards against per game this season.
The Eagles have the sixth-ranked DVOA defense, but rank just 24th against the rush. The Packers running backs rushed for a combined 107 yards on 20 carries in week 12. The Colts were able to control most of the game in Week 11 against the Eagles, running the ball 25 times for 98 yards.
Eagles Passing Attack Starting To Struggle Without Dallas Goedert
The Eagles passing offense was humming coming into the Week 10 matchup with the Commanders, but has since struggled with the loss of TE Dallas Goedert. Hurts and Co. managed to put up 40 points against the Green Bay Packers last week, but most of it was behind RB Miles Sanders. Hurts only passed for a season-low 153 yards and has not topped 190 yards in either game without Goedert.
Philadelphia still ranks as the third-best offense according to DVOA statistics, but their passing attack is clearly their worry. All of that may not even matter though if they can get their own running game going on Sunday against one of the best units this season.
The Titans have the 10th-ranked DVOA defense and it prides itself on stopping the run. The Titans rank No. 1 in DVOA defense against the rush this year, which could cause some troubles for this Eagles offense.
Final Titans-Eagles Prediction & Pick:
This feels like a game that will be won or lost in the trenches. It is exactly the type of football the Titans want to play and that’s why we have seen the spread for this game drop all week. The Eagles were 5.5-point favorites at home, but the spread has come down to 4.5 with most of the money coming in on the Titans.
The Eagles are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread at home this year while the Titans are 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread on the road.
There are a couple ways I am looking to attack this matchup. First of all, if the Titans are going to keep pace here they will need to feed Henry early and often. Henry’s rushing and receiving line this week is set at 100.5 which seems way too low. He has gone over 101 yards in 8 of his 11 games this season, two of them being the first two games of the season when Henry had a combined zero catches.
If I like the Henry side of bets then I am also going to look for the Titans to keep it close. As previously mentioned, the Titans are 6-0 when Henry combines for over 132 yards this season. While I am not sure we see him get to this number, the spread seems a little too wide for this matchup.
Final Titans-Eagles Picks: Derrick Henry Over 100.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115); & Titans +4.5 (-110)
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