The Los Angeles Chargers host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. There is only one thing anyone has been talking about all week: Justin Herbert‘s health.
The Chargers opened as a touchdown favorite but the line plummeted down to -3 when Herbert’s injury status was changed to doubtful on Friday morning. We can expect to see backup Chase Daniel take the reigns for Los Angeles in Herbert’s absence.
As of Friday evening, 65% of the betting handle for this game is on the Jaguars +3. The Chargers will look to continue their successful run against Jacksonville without Herbert. They have won and covered in each of the last nine meetings between these two teams.
Jaguars vs. Chargers Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Letdown Spot for Jacksonville
Jacksonville enters this game following last week’s 24-0 thumping of the Indianapolis Colts, a divisional foe. There is no denying that the Jaguars looked strong in that game, but the Colts do look clueless out there under head coach Frank Reich.
Can Jacksonville replicate that success on the road against a stacked Chargers team? I highly doubt It.
The trends are certainly not in Jacksonville’s favor. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a win.
Trevor Lawrence should have his hands full going against this Chargers defense. Entering the season, PFF ranked Los Angeles’ defensive line as the seventh best-best in the league and their secondary as the eighth best.
My main concern for this offense is whether they will be able to put up points. Los Angeles’ defensive line should have the advantage in the trenches and shut down the Jaguars’ run game, while their secondary should limit Trevor Lawrence‘s throwing, which has looked average at-best through his young career.
Still Value in Backing Los Angeles
The Chargers are obviously worse without Justin Herbert, no question. Are they four points worse? Probably, but not against a team as bad as the Jaguars.
Do not get me wrong, the Jaguars are slowly on the rise and have a strong defense, but their offense should struggle mightily against this extremely stacked Chargers line and secondary. The Chargers held the Raiders and the Chiefs to an average of 23 points through the first two weeks. They should expect to keep a much weaker Jaguars offense to just a couple of touchdowns.
So this begs the question, can Chase Daniel manage the game enough to get 21+ points on the board? I would wager, yes.
We have not seen much of Daniel since joining Los Angeles. However, he looked sharp with this offense when given the ball, producing a 69% completion percentage with three touchdowns and no interceptions through three preseason games.
That might just be preseason but it illuminates that Daniel can take care of the ball and manage the game, which is all we need from him in this contest. Austin Ekeler will make Daniel’s life a lot easier since he can be a swiss army knife for the offense and a reliable target in what should be a checkdown-heavy approach on Sunday.
Jaguars vs. Chargers Prediction
Jacksonville should be a relatively easy opponent for Daniel to ease into game action. Carson Wentz threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns against the Jags in Week 1. Anyone reading this knows that Wentz is certainly not a game-breaking quarterback.
PFF ranked Jacksonville as a bottom-10 defense in the NFL entering the season. While they are coming off a shutout, it was against a division opponent that they have seen plenty of times before.
This Chargers offense should be a big wake-up call for a defense that has gone up against the Colts and the Commanders, even with Herbert sidelined. I would not take this spread at 3.5 but a field goal should be enough points to cover with Daniel at the helm.
Jaguars vs. Chargers Prediction: Los Angeles -3 (-110) at DraftKings
