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NFL Week 11 Best Bets and Predictions: Bears Run Offense Clicking at Elite Level

Wagering on the totals in the NFL gives bettors another option to get exposure on a particular team or game. Team trends on offense and defense play a big part in where oddsmakers set the opening lines. There are also ways to bet on team totals or first half (total or team total). This year, significant trends on the under have manifested as several teams have dealt with key injuries on offense.

The Rams and Saints have had some of the biggest injuries to their offensive units this season, and most of their games have skewed to going under the total. Meanwhile, the Bears and Falcons are two of the top rushing offenses and have played in many high-scoring games, especially in Chicago’s most recent weeks.

NFL Week 11 Best Bets for Game and Team Totals

Rams-Saints (Saints -4, 38.5)

The Rams lost 27-17 at home to the Arizona Cardinals with backup quarterback John Wolford starting for Matthew Stafford, who is in the concussion protocol. The Saints lost on the road to the Steelers 20-10. Both offenses have struggled most of the season due to numerous injuries to key offensive players.

The Rams have lost three in a row and five out of their last six games. They are 29th in scoring at 16.4 points per game and are averaging 14.5 points per game in their last six. Six offensive linemen are either out or on injured reserve, making things very difficult for the Rams to have any offensive production. But the key injuries are to Stafford (concussion) and Cooper Kupp (ankle-IR). The lack of a running game (32nd) is going to make this another long Sunday for the Rams.

The Saints have two starting offensive linemen and four defensive starters listed as questionable for Sunday. They have averaged 15.7 points per game in their last three. One of the biggest reasons for the struggles is the 12 interceptions thrown by Saints quarterbacks. The Rams still have enough healthy bodies on defense to give the Saints offense fits. New Orleans will have to lean on running back Alvin Kamara to have any chance in this game.

This total has dropped from 42.5 to 38.5, and it is understandable. The total has gone under in five of Los Angeles’ last six games on the road, and the total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 Saints home games. With both teams battling numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball, this game is destined to be low scoring and go under the posted total of 38.5. That is a great number to go under on because 37 and 38 are key numbers (20-17, 21-17, 24-13, 23-14 are all common final scores).

Rams-Saints NFL Best Bet: UNDER 38.5 (DraftKings -110)

Bears-Falcons (Falcons -3, 50)

The Bears (3-6) are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to the Detroit Lions 31-30, while the Falcons (4-6) lost last Thursday night on the road to the Carolina Panthers 25-15. Both teams rank near the top in run offense and near the bottom in pass defense which should make for a high scoring affair.

The Bears found themselves in an unfamiliar situation last Sunday as -2.5 home favorites against the Lions, and they ended up blowing a late lead to lose 31-30. Now they go on the road against the Falcons.

Chicago’s offense has exploded in recent weeks, starting with the Monday night football game against the Patriots. Its last three games have gone flying over the total, with scores of 78, 67 and 61. The Bears lead the NFL in going over team totals, with a 7-3 record.

It should continue this week against a weak Falcons defense that plays in the friendly confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. With no wind, rain or cold temperatures to deal with, the offenses should be on display in a huge way.

Both teams will look to win the game on the ground, as they rank first (Bears) and fourth (Falcons) and both starting quarterbacks will not hesitate to tuck the ball and run to keep drives alive. The Falcons are 11th in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA. They are 3-1-1 to the over on their team total at home.

The Bears have scored 33, 29, 32 and 30 points over the last four weeks. Justin Fields has become the leader of the Bears offense, setting records for quarterback rushing. With the exception of the last two games, the Falcons have been involved in high-scoring games as well. Everything in this game lines up for another Bears shootout on Sunday.

Bears-Falcons NFL Best Bet: Bears OVER 23.5 (DraftKings -110); OVER 50 (DraftKings -110)

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