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NFL MVP Odds and Best Bets: Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa Race Gets Tighter

Another surprising week of NFL games led to some shifts in the futures market. Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers in the 2022 NFL MVP Odds heading into Week 11, including Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen.

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2022 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions

Riser: Patrick Mahomes +200 to +125

We’ve seen some big movement in the MVP market over the past two weeks, and Mahomes has established himself as the clear favorite. He’s gotten as low as -110 at PointsBet, but you can still grab him at +125 at DraftKings.

Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) to another win in Week 10, lifting them the top spot in the AFC after two straight losses by the Buffalo Bills. Mahomes had another strong statistical performance with 331 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 27-17 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards (2,936) and TD passes (25) by wide margins, and with such a strong statistical profile, it’s easy to see why he has become the betting favorite. That said, there’s still plenty of season left. We’ve already seen Allen lose the favorite status in recent weeks, so Mahomes is far from a lock. Hopefully, you’ve already gotten some exposure to him at a better number, but if you haven’t, don’t look to chase at +125.

Recommendation: Hold

Riser: Tua Tagovailoa +950 to +500

Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins are making a legit run in the AFC. They ripped off their fourth consecutive win in Week 10, a 39-17 drubbing of the Cleveland Browns. The Dolphins (7-3) have surpassed the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East and are 7-0 in games started and finished by Tagovailoa.

Though games missed because of injury have hurt Tagovailoa from a volume standpoint, he’s been the best quarterback in football from an efficiency standpoint. He leads the NFL in touchdown rate, adjusted yards per attempt, quarterback rating, and QBR, and owns the top grade at the position per Pro Football Focus.

That said, there are a number of factors working against Tagovailoa as an MVP candidate. Mahomes has far superior volume statistics, and that’s going to hurt in the eyes of the voters. Teammate Tyreek Hill is one of the favorites for Offensive Player of the Year, which could also hurt Tagovailoa’s candidacy. The Dolphins schedule is about to get significantly tougher, with remaining games against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, Bills and New York Jets. Any regression is going to have a huge impact on Tagovailoa’s value, so don’t look to buy at an inflated price tag.

Recommendation: Sell

 

Riser: Kirk Cousins +4000 to +3500

The Minnesota Vikings continue to pull magic out of their hats. They managed to win another one-score game in Week 10, 33-30 at Buffalo, to tie the NFL record with seven straight one-score victories. This one might have been the most improbable. They needed a miraculous catch from Justin Jefferson on fourth-and-18, and a fumble in the end zone by Allen, and still needed an Allen interception in overtime to seal the deal.

But those wins all count, and the Vikings (8-1) are tied for the best record in the NFL. They’ve all but locked up a top-two seed in the NFC, which is going to get Kirk Cousins into the MVP conversation.

That said, Cousins is having a far worse statistical season than he’s had in the past few years. His numbers are down virtually across the board, and his 47.7 QBR is his lowest mark as a full-time starter. He’s not a real threat to win MVP, and that is reflected in his 2022 NFL MVP odds.

Recommendation: Sell

Faller: Josh Allen +330 to +600

Allen’s MVP stock took another hit with the loss to the Vikings, though the fact he was on the field at all was somewhat surprising. The Bills played it very coy with Allen’s elbow injury all week, and he didn’t even warm up with the first-team offense Sunday. That said, he played well enough to put Buffalo (6-3) in a position to win before his inexplicable fumble.

Allen also threw two interceptions for a third straight week, bringing his total to 10 for the season, tied for most in the NFL. He ranks second in touchdown passes and yards per game, but he’s now a sizable MVP underdog to Mahomes.

Ultimately, this is a good thing for bettors. It’s quite possible you haven’t gotten any exposure to Allen because he’s been the favorite all year. His price got under +200 at times, and this is his lowest price since the MVP odds were posted. It’s the perfect time to grab some exposure to Allen if you’ve already bet Mahomes and Jalen Hurts at longer odds.

Allen at times has been the best player in the NFL this season, and the Bills at times have been the best team in football. He is coming off back-to-back shaky performances, but there are big games on the horizon, and if Mahomes falters at all, Allen has the potential to make up the distance.

Recommendation: Buy

 

Faller: Jalen Hurts +250 to +500

Hurts took a tumble down the leaderboard following the Philadelphia Eagles’ first loss of the season, 32-21 to the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football.

Hurts is an excellent football player, and the Eagles (8-1) are still the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. However, his style is not conducive to winning MVP. He has just 14 touchdown passes on the year, and he’s averaging just 246 passing yards per game. Even with his rushing numbers (354 yards, seven TDs), it’s going to be hard for voters to reconcile giving the award to Hurts with Mahomes and Allen having superior statistical seasons.

His best chance at MVP was the Eagles running the table, which is no longer possible. It’s going to be tough for him to leapfrog Mahomes, and even if he does, Allen is lurking.

Recommendation: Sell

Faller: Justin Herbert +4500 to +10000

Unfortunately, this feels like another year of “what ifs” for the Los Angeles Chargers. They assembled one of the most talented rosters in football, led by Justin Herbert at quarterback. The Chargers (5-4) remain in playoff contention, but injuries are going to keep them from reaching their full potential. They have been without Rashawn Slater, Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in recent weeks, and the injuries haven’t stopped there. Things got so bad Sunday night against the 49ers that they basically ran out of defensive linemen in a 22-16 loss.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising Herbert has failed to live up to expectations. There are still plenty of opportunities for him to contend for NFL MVP in the future, but it’s not in the cards this season.

Recommendation: Sell

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