Welcome to the third edition of a new NFL picks article from OddsShopper — the NFL Week 3 Confidence Pool Picks.
Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games each week. With 16 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to one point — the higher the number, the more confident the play.
Some early strategies in the confidence pool center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any * denotes an upset.
Week 3 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- Los Angeles Chargers (-315) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The only question in this game is the health of Justin Herbert. From there it’s just a matter of how badly the Chargers beat up the Jaguars. Jacksonville comes off a gigantic victory over the Colts and the Chargers are licking their wounds with extra time following their loss in Kansas City. The Jags can still win the AFC South, but they aren’t beating LA.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-210) at New York Jets
Things are not looking good for a team with some promise this season, especially what they did to help the offensive line protect their quarterback. That’s just the Bengals. While things are rough in Cincy for Joe Burrow, they aren’t “Lose to the Jets” bad. The Jets won in improbable fashion against a bad Browns team, so don’t expect any magic from Joe Flacco.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-275) at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are in serious trouble. It’s hard to think the Chiefs couldn’t roll out backups mostly seen in the preseason and still win this game. Kansas City held back a gritty Chargers team and has extra rest to prepare for one of the worst teams in football through two weeks. Advantage Andy Reid.
- Minnesota Vikings (-240) vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions aren’t that bad and it’s noticeable on the field. Whatever Dan Campbell sold the team during Hard Knocks is keeping them competitive. Unfortunately, they face a Vikings offense that was shut down by the Eagles and should have a huge bounce-back week. Kirk Cousins faces a much weaker defense and it’s not in primetime.
- Buffalo Bills (-220) at Miami Dolphins
Buffalo is a locomotive right now, weathering injury to decimate opponents. Don’t expect any letdown from last week’s throttling of the Titans, but don’t expect it from Miami either. The Dolphins may have made one of the more unbelievable comebacks in NFL history, but they do present a challenge for every defense if Tyreek Hill is on the field. This is a division game and will be closer than the money line indicates.
- Los Angeles Rams (-180) at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s victory defines outlier. It was a hell of a win and an amazing game to watch but this has been a bad football team in 6.5 of their eight quarters played. Kyler Murray and this offense are still without DeAndre Hopkins and face a Rams team looking to bounce back from a near-loss to the Falcons. The Rams aren’t taking two teams lightly two weeks in a row.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-260) at Washington Commanders
Part of the strategy in the confidence pool is shorting heavier favorites, as is the case here with the Eagles. Philadelphia looks sharp on offense and like they’ve fixed issues on defense, but this is a familiar foe led by a familiar name. While it won’t be Jalen Hurts vs. Carson Wentz, a lot of discussion has already started about this game. The Eagles are the better team, but the Commanders should hang around in this one.
- Chicago Bears (-144) vs. Houston Texans
The Texans have kept things close and interesting through two weeks but that’s all it’s truly been. After two weeks, it’s painfully obvious their two opponents don’t have their stuff together. Indy might be as bad as Houston and the Broncos haven’t figured it out quite yet. Chicago has a marginal advantage at home and a better defense. Move this one up in your rankings.
- Baltimore Ravens (-155) at New England Patriots
The Patriots snuck by the Steelers and now host a Ravens team on the wrong side of history. It’s an easy expectation for Baltimore to bounce back, playing like they did in most of their game against Miami. Some of the concern still lies with injuries on the Ravens’ defense, but the other part of it is Bill Belichick’s familiarity with John Harbaugh. The Ravens are a short favorite on the road, rightfully so, and should sneak by in a lower-scoring game.
- Cleveland Browns (-205) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh seems better than a home dog sitting north of 2-1 against a team that just lost to the Jets. The Steelers are still stuck in Trubisky Land but have found a strategy where Mitch Trubisky isn’t hurting them or single-handedly losing games. Mike Tomlin has his guys ready to play against the Patriots and there’s no reason to trust Cleveland’s coaching staff will do the same here.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-130) vs Green Bay Packers*
The Bucs may be without a couple of key weapons when they host Green Bay this week. Meanwhile, the plot thickens as the Packers are getting healthy. Aaron Jones was huge alongside Aaron Rodgers as the Packers looked how we all expected them to play. The Bucs are fine, but they needed a lot to overcome the struggling Saints and don’t look as crisp as they did against the Cowboys.
- New York Giants (-130) vs. Dallas Cowboys*
Speaking of Dallas, put some respect on Cooper Rush’s name! The Cowboys are going to upset the Giants at MetLife and it has everything to do with defense. This game will boil down to one thing and one thing only: Which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. Daniel Jones is still in YOLO mode despite the team being 2-0, and the Cowboys have created a game plan that doesn’t ask Rush to do it all.
- Las Vegas Raiders (-125) at Tennessee Titans*
Are the Titans truly this bad? They’ve been a playoff team and still have one of the best backs in the NFL. Buffalo minimized Derrick Henry and the rest of the Titans’ offense, but don’t think that’s coming again with the Raiders. Ryan Tannehill might be duped into a shootout with Derrick Carr, but this game will be won by the ground attack in Nashville.
- Seattle Seahawks (-120) vs. Atlanta Falcons*
Arthur Smith certainly has the ear of his team as Atlanta outscored the Rams 17-3 in the fourth quarter. Two close calls and covers by the Falcons should have you rethinking how bad this team might be. The Seahawks were grounded by the Niners, as expected following an emotional win, but their offense looked atrocious. Atlanta has the firepower to outscore Seattle.
- San Francisco 49ers (-112) at Denver Broncos
Jammed at the bottom with the upsets is this short favorite. The Niners should be fine with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, but the bigger question remains about how bad the Broncos might be. Denver and Russell Wilson haven’t quite clicked, and the Niners’ injury situation at QB has made them better. Denver wins this game if Wilson shows any signs of his former self.
- New Orleans Saints (-143) at Carolina Panthers*
Jameis Winston looked awful against the Bucs. It’s almost like that staff knew exactly what was coming from the Saints. New Orleans looks a long way from Sean Payton masterminding a scheme that dressed up Winston as an accurate thrower. Not to paint Baker Mayfield as anything better, but both he and his coach can feel their seats heating up. It’s now or never for a desperate Panthers team, still with a good defense, if some key guys want to keep their jobs.
