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NFL Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks: Packers, Eagles & Lions Locks; Bengals & 49ers on Upset Watch (September 27)

Welcome to the fourth edition of a new NFL picks article from OddsShopper — the NFL Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks.

Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 16 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play.

Some early strategies in the confidence pool center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.

All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.

Any * denotes an upset.

Week 4 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings

  1. Green Bay Packers (-500) vs. New England Patriots

Without Mac Jones it’s hard to think the Patriots have much of a chance. Even with their starting quarterback healthy, it’s a big ask for New England. According to Aaron Rodgers, the Packers feel great following their 2-1 start and win over the Buccaneers. They have also played through some injuries of their own. There is no way they lose this game, so there is no reason to short this favorite.

  1. Dallas Cowboys (-165) vs. Washington Commanders

Week 4 is where the bumping up of shorter favorites can start making a difference. Yes, the Eagles sacked Carson Wentz nine times last week, but so much of that was due to how bad Wentz is. Not many starting quarterbacks hold the ball as long as Wentz, and through three weeks, Cooper Rush is the better player.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (-225) at Houston Texans

The health of Justin Herbert will be monitored all week, as it’s a major factor in any Chargers outcome. Basing this week’s result off last week’s loss would be a mistake. Los Angeles is simply better than the Texans in too many areas outside of just the quarterback position. The Texans would need a miraculous offensive performance to win. Jacksonville is a better team with superior coaching to Houston. Los Angeles wins this with Chase Daniel, if necessary.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (-270) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Speaking of Jacksonville, Doug Pederson makes his highly-anticipated return to Philadelphia. Between the emotional victory last week in Los Angeles and what is expected in Pederson’s first game against his old team, it’s too much for the Jaguars. So is Jalen Hurts. The Eagles are one of the most, if not the most, explosive offenses in the NFL. The Jaguars defense is improved, but not that much.

  1. Detroit Lions (-230) at Seattle Seahawks

At this time, the Lions are the second-highest favorite across the NFL. That might be the first time since Barry Sanders. The Seahawks are a bad football team but not by choice; they are smarter than their talent and are well coached. Detroit is improved overall and also has a coach with his team’s ear, but they aren’t good enough to overcome a loss like last week. The door is cracked for the Seahawks.

  1. Minnesota Vikings (-141) at New Orleans Saints

The London game mitigates any home field and travel advantages, making this truly about matchups and talent. The Vikings come off an improbable victory, needing everything against the Lions. Dalvin Cook’s status will be monitored, but if he’s out, this is something the Vikings have dealt with before. The Saints are still dealing with Jameis Winston being coached by a non-Hall of Famer.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (-130) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Which team has a better chance of bouncing back from last week’s disappointment — the Buccaneers, who are still banged up and dealing with player absences, or the Chiefs, who suffered a clear outlier loss? It’s Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady in this one, primarily because the former isn’t dealing with an injured thumb. The Chiefs overlooked Indianapolis to get to this game; that didn’t pay off last week but will come Sunday.

  1. Buffalo Bills (-170) at Baltimore Ravens

The good news for Buffalo is both Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have no injury concerns ahead of their game in Baltimore. The bad news is all of those concerns are placed squarely on Lamar Jackson. Both teams are dealing with injuries, yet the Ravens are a decent home dog to the Bills. Buffalo comes off a disappointing loss to Miami, and Baltimore lit up the Patriots. This game is far closer than the spread would indicate.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-165) vs. New York Jets

At some point there’s an expected shift at quarterback for a team that’s heading nowhere this year. Then there’s Zach Wilson coming back to the Jets. While it’s still Mitchell Trubisky’s job in Pittsburgh, they at least have a couple of games to coach around. Making a season debut off a knee injury, against any defense isn’t easy, and Wilson should struggle. Mike Tomlin deserves enough benefit here to game plan accordingly.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals (-190) vs. Miami Dolphins*

The upset special of the week is in South Beach as the Dolphins look to stay undefeated against a Bengals team coming off its first win. It’s a short week for both teams, but the Bengals get an added boost being the home team. The difference is Tua Tagovailoa has been better in multiple areas than Joe Burrow. The Dolphins are enjoying the same newfound success the Bengals struggled to keep from last season. Beating the Jets shouldn’t alieviate anyone’s concerns in Cincinnati.

  1. New York Giants (-165) vs. Chicago Bears

The Giants should bounce back after an awful division loss to the Cowboys. Chicago might be down David Montgomery, which limits the rushing offense despite Khalil Herbert gaining 157 yards on the ground. Even worse, their defense gives up the most yards on the ground in the NFL. Saquon Barkley looked sharp on the ground, and Daniel Jones is a threat to run every snap. It won’t be easy, but not much has been for the Giants – even in victory.

  1. San Francisco 49ers (-126) vs. Los Angeles Rams*

This is a division game, with the 49ers having a slight edge at home against the Rams. Los Angeles seems past their concerns about Matthew Stafford‘s injury, and the 49ers have re-settled in with Jimmy Garappolo at the helm. The difference here is losing Trent Williams for the next few weeks. The 4e9rs may have improved their quarterback position, but they can’t compete with the Rams pass rush without Williams on the field.

  1. Carolina Panthers (-120) vs. Arizona Cardinals*

Two teams with identical 1-2 records kick off in Carolina, with plenty of drama surrounding both squads. There is a clear level of disappointment in Arizona despite Kyler Murray being down multiple receivers – including the final week of a suspension for DeAndre Hopkins. The concern is with Rondale Moore and A.J. Green, but Murray is a top dual-threat who can keep his team in games. They come off a tough division loss to a good Rams team, and the Panthers are still bad.

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (-132) vs. Denver Broncos*

This game even as an upset should be higher on the board, but the problem is the confidence in Denver. It is hard to play a team in a confidence pool if it’s lacking because of their offense. Each week will be the conversation about whether this will be the game where they finally figure it out. Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett have not so far, and the Raiders are suddenly realizing their offseason additions aren’t enough to compete.

  1. Indianapolis Colts (-165) vs. Tennessee Titans

This game is as hard to pick, and it will be to watch. Both teams are ugly yet come off humungous wins. The Colts must be relieved they won’t go winless this year, and the Titans get a boost in a wide-open division. The advantage here is the defense, and that goes to the Colts. While it was a trap for the Chiefs, the Colts defense still played exceptionally well last week. The Titans allowed the Raiders to walk back in their game. Matt Ryan is still the spread-killer, but in a moneyline play they should win.

  1. Cleveland Browns (-120) at Atlanta Falcons*

Not having Myles Garrett on the field is one thing, but watching a teammate go through a serious car wreck will have a toll. Garrett is a leader on the field and in the locker room, so it’s expected this will take a little wind out of Cleveland’s sails. They aren’t talented enough to overcome major off the field events. The Falcons are upstart and have newfound faith in both Arthur Smith and Marcus Mariota.

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