The NFL Week 4 betting markets are open, and there is no time like the present to get action down. Last week’s column featured two winning plays but secured closing line value in all three markets. Backing the Jaguars at +7 proved sharp, as the spread closed at +3.5. Likewise, backing the Packers on the moneyline +120 did as well, as that number closed at or below +100. Backing the Cardinals at +4, before the number ticked down to +3.5, also proved sharp — although bettors didn’t secure a return on that play.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Bettors can find more value now than they’ll find right before kickoff by digging into the Week 4 NFL betting odds early.
Early NFL Week 4 Predictions & Betting Picks
Vikings vs. Saints: Injuries Could Cost New Orleans
The New Orleans Saints lost three wide receivers to injuries in Week 3. Jarvis Landry is dealing with foot soreness that was initially reported as an ankle injury, Michael Thomas hurt his toe and Tre’Quan Smith got concussed. None of the three wideouts re-entered the game after their respective injuries. Starting guard Andrus Peat also suffered a concussion and couldn’t return. The Saints had already lost rookie left Trevor Penning to injured reserve, so the left side of New Orleans’ offensive line could consist entirely of backups. These injuries may move the spread as the week progresses.
The Saints were already playing inefficient football with those players available. Quarterback Jameis Winston has completed 63.5% of his passes for four touchdowns and 6.22 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Winston has thrown five interceptions and taken 11 sacks. Much of Winston’s production has come in the second half of games with the Saints trailing by a wide margin — Winston rallied late against both Atlanta and Carolina.
The Minnesota Vikings haven’t looked perfect, but they have looked better than the Saints. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has completed 62.2% of his passes for five touchdowns and 5.86 NY/A. While Cousins has produced less yardage, he has also taken fewer sacks (4) and thrown fewer picks (3). Further, Cousins put up those numbers against the Packers, Eagles and Lions — tougher opponents than the Falcons, Buccaneers and Panthers.
The two teams will also play this game in London, and Cousins has been the better quarterback abroad. Cousins completed 67.8% of his passes for 458 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in his London trip back in 2016. In contrast, Winston completed only 55.5% of his passes for 400 yards, one touchdown and five interceptions in his trip to London in 2019.
Vikings vs. Saints Prediction: Vikings -2.5 (-110) at Caesars
Panthers vs. Cardinals: Hurricane Ian May Drop Total
Hurricane Ian will likely make landfall in Florida by Thursday morning. The storm will then work its way slowly up the east coast, eventually making its way to North Carolina as a tropical depression by Sunday. The forecast for Charlotte suggests a soggy, windy weekend is in store. News about the weather may cause bettors to play the under in expectation of a slow, run-heavy affair — Bank of America Stadium lacks a retractable roof.
The under has value for a few other reasons as well. First, both the Cardinals and Panthers have played inefficient offense this year. Arizona ranks 27th in yards per play (4.8) and Carolina ranks 22nd (5.1). Third downs haven’t gone well for these teams, either — Arizona ranks 29th in third-down conversion rate (27.9%) and Carolina ranks 30th (27%). Both teams have punted more often than they have scored.
The books have also tended to overrate both offenses. The under is 28-23-2 in Arizona’s games under Kliff Kingsbury. Likewise, the under is 19-16-1 in Carolina’s games under Matt Rhule. While a few factors are concerning, like Arizona’s defense allowing a league-high 6.7 yards per play and the defensive injuries suffered by both teams in Week 3, the total will still probably act like most barometers in Charlotte and drop.
Panthers vs. Cardinals Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Rams vs. 49ers: Williams Injury Should Move Spread
The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are both dealing with a fair share of injuries. But the one suffered by left tackle Trent Williams on Sunday Night Football should have moved this spread by a wider margin already. A high ankle sprain will sideline the 34-year-old Williams for next week’s edition of Monday Night Football, and that will leave quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo vulnerable in the pocket. Williams owns a PFF grade of 79.5 through three weeks. Williams will join 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell on the sidelines. Mitchell accounted for 246 of San Francisco’s yards against Los Angeles last season across the team’s three meetings, and Jeff Wilson Jr. may struggle to replicate those numbers.
Backup tackles Colton McKivitz and Jaylon Moore saw action in relief of Williams, but neither looked great. Garoppolo took two sacks for a loss of 20 yards after Williams left Sunday night’s game, one of which was credited to Moore, who earned an atrocious PFF grade of 28.6 on seven snaps. The Rams already sacked Garoppolo four times last season with Williams in the lineup, so losing him could prove catastrophic to the passing game.
The Rams have been dealing with a lengthy injury report of their own lately, but not to players as important as Williams. Not having cornerback Troy Hill and safety Jordan Fuller last week hurt, but the Rams still held Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to only 4.92 NY/A. Los Angeles could even get Fuller and center Brian Allen back this week, although neither player’s return is a guarantee. Still, any positive news about either player would help push this line in Los Angeles’ favor.
Rams vs. 49ers Prediction: Rams +2.5 (-105) at DraftKings
