Thursday Night Football brings a great matchup in Week 4 with the Bengals hosting the Dolphins. Both teams have talented rosters and aspirations of making deep runs in the playoffs. Adding to the excitement of this game is another opportunity to win some money on No House Advantage. There are two types of contests to play, “Pick ‘Em” and “Vs The House.” Let’s discuss some props to target among those options.
NFL Thursday Night Football Odds and Props: No House Advantage
Joe Burrow: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Jets had no answer for Burrow in Week 3, allowing him to throw for 275 yards and three touchdowns. It was a good bounce-back performance for Burrow after being held to 199 yards and a touchdown by the Cowboys in Week 2. The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in football, which has contributed to them allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the league.
Burrow has at least two touchdown passes in two of three games this year, and he had at least two touchdown passes in 11 of 16 games last season. The Bengals like to throw when they get inside the red zone, which has been highlighted by Burrow’s 21 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line so far. Burrow could be plenty busy inside the red zone again as the Bengals look to keep pace with the improved Dolphins’ offense. The NFL Player Props Tool has Burrow projected to throw 1.9 touchdown passes.
Jaylen Waddle: Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
The arrival of Tyreek Hill has not had an adverse effect on Waddle’s production through three games. He has topped 100 yards twice, while also hauling in three touchdowns. He had six touchdown receptions all of his rookie campaign, so he could blow by that number in a much more explosive offense this season.
Even when Waddle didn’t total at least 100 receiving yards in Week 1, he barely missed going over this total with 69 receiving yards. After averaging 7.2 yards per target last season, that number has climbed to 11.4 this year. He’s officially listed as questionable with a groin injury, but the expectation is that he will play. Look for Waddle to produce another lofty stat line in what could be a high-scoring game.
Tua Tagovailoa: Over 260.5 Passing Yards
With limited weapons last season, Tagovailoa finished with 244 passing yards or fewer in each of his final six games. With regards to this total, he had at least 261 passing yards in only three of his 13 games. It was clear that if the Dolphins were going to take his development to the next level, that they needed to improve the talent around him.
With Hill joining Waddle, Tagovailoa has at least 270 passing yards in two of his first three games. Despite only attempting 18 passes against the Bills in Week 3, he still had 186 passing yards. This will be a significant test for the Bengals’ defense, who has lucked out by facing quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco through three weeks. Don’t be surprised if Tagovailoa approaches 300 passing yards in this matchup. Tagovailoa (back/ankle) is also listed as questionable, but like Waddle, he is expected to play.
Raheem Mostert: Under 40.5 Rushing Yards
As we’ve already said, the Dolphins have a dangerous passing game that is led by the duo of Hill and Waddle. They don’t have the same talent at running back, where they are rolling with a committee approach that includes Mostert and Chase Edmonds. The duo’s workload has been evenly split on the ground, with Mostert getting 24 carries to Edmonds 23.
With Mostert in a timeshare, he has rushed for fewer than 20 yards in two of the Dolphins’ first three games. This could be a game with plenty of passes being thrown on both sides based on the wide receivers involved, which might lead to even fewer carries for Mostert. The NFL Player Props Tool has Mostert projected to total 37.0 rushing yards.
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