With most of Week 4 in the books, the NFL Week 5 betting markets have opened, which means it’s the best time to get action down. Last week’s column featured two winning plays — possibly three, pending Monday Night Football — and secured closing line value in all three markets.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Bettors can find more value now than they’ll find right before kickoff by digging into the Week 5 NFL betting odds early.
Early NFL Week 5 Predictions & Betting Picks
Colts vs. Broncos: Indy’s Injuries Less Severe
Both the Colts and Broncos suffered some massive injuries in Week 4. For Indianapolis, star running back Jonathan Taylor suffered an ankle injury, and star linebacker Shaquille Leonard suffered a concussion. Head coach Frank Reich has already ruled him out for Thursday’s matchup. For Denver, star pass rusher Randy Gregory and star running back Javonte Williams suffered knee injuries. These teams will face off on Thursday Night Football, so all four banged-up players have little time to get healthy.
The Colts enter the Week 5 contest as 3.5-point underdogs, but that number could easily swing back over the key number of three before kickoff. Initial reports suggest that Taylor’s injury is less serious than feared, but the same can’t be said of Williams. While Taylor still may not be available for Week 5, the Colts at least have Nyheim Hines behind him and Phillip Lindsay on their practice squad. The Broncos have fumble machine Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone behind Williams.
The Indianapolis passing game has looked much improved now that Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce are healthy. Although star boundary cornerback Pat Surtain could limit Pittman and cause problems for Matt Ryan, the Colts won’t have to worry about Gregory causing pressure in the pocket or Justin Simmons supporting Surtain over the top. The possibility of Taylor playing will also force the demoralized Broncos to plan for both a traditional Colts run-heavy gameplan and a pass-focused one on a short week. And if Taylor can suit up, expect lots of money to come in on the Colts and move the spread.
The Colts haven’t played perfectly on defense, but the unit has done enough to keep the offense in games. Indianapolis has surrendered 24 points or fewer to each of its four opponents, and opposing teams have gained only 297 yards per game on 4.8 yards per play, both of which rank sixth. Even if the Colts must play without Taylor, look for Ryan and the defense to keep this one within a field goal.
Colts vs. Broncos: Colts +3.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Packers vs. Giants: New York’s Quarterbacks All Hurt
Will the New York Giants have a healthy quarterback for next week’s game in London? Both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor went down with injuries. Jones injured his ankle and did not take another snap under center. His replacement, Taylor, suffered a concussion and was ruled out. Jones and Taylor now face a trans-Atlantic trip for a matchup against the Green Bay Packers. The Giants have quarterback Davis Webb stashed on their practice squad, but the third-round pick from 2017 is yet to throw a regular-season pass.
The Giants have become increasingly dependent upon running back Saquon Barkley. He leads the NFL in scrimmage yards by almost 80 and accounts for 40% of New York’s total yardage. New York’s next-best player in scrimmage yards is Jones himself, who has picked up 193 yards with his legs, nearly 40 yards more than what any Giants receiver has totaled through the air. With Jones’ ankle hurt and wide receivers Sterling Shepard, Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney dealing with injuries, the Giants may need to rely on Barkley even more in London.
Green Bay’s bad performance against New England last weekend creates a prime buy-low opportunity that may not exist come kickoff. The Giants will likely use a run-heavy scheme similar to what New England used last weekend, so the Packers will know what to expect in London. While the Patriots managed to cover, the Green Bay defense contained the Patriots more than the box score suggests. New England’s offense needed a pick-six to force overtime.
Furthermore, New York’s defense has played worse than New England’s. The Giants have allowed 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 19th, and 5.1 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 26th. The Patriots often pressured quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but the Giants have a worse pass rush. New York has sacked opposing quarterbacks only 2.3 times per game, which ranks 15th — and those numbers are inflated by their recent five-sack showing against the incompetent Justin Fields.
Packers vs. Giants: Packers -7.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Lions vs Patriots: Buy-Low Spot for Detroit
The Lions struggled in Week 4 without D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Yet Detroit managed to score a whopping 45 points behind huge performances from Jamaal Williams and T.J. Hockenson. While Swift’s status for Week 5 is in doubt, St. Brown has a realistic shot to suit up against the Patriots and would give Detroit’s offense a boost. Fellow wide receiver D.J. Chark should be able to return in time for Week 4 as well.
Detroit’s offense has proven that it deserves respect. The Lions lead the NFL in yards per play (6.5), well ahead of their opponents next weekend, the New England Patriots (5.7). A rock-solid offensive line has led the way by keeping pressure out of Jared Goff‘s face and generating plenty of yards for the running backs. Goff has faced pressure on just 14.4% of his dropbacks, which ranks sixth lowest, and the running backs have averaged 4.5 yards before contact per carry. Although the defense has struggled and allowed the second-most yards per play (6.5), the offense has propelled Detroit to a 3-1 record against the spread. In contrast, the Patriots have gone just 1-2-1 against the spread.
New England will likely rely on a run-heavy attack with quarterbacks Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer injured. It should work reasonably well, as Detroit has allowed plenty of yards on the ground, but a slow-paced, run-heavy game won’t allow the Patriots to get out to a big lead. That should keep Detroit’s offense in the mix deep into the game, especially
Bettors who buy the Lions now will likely see the Patriots’ advantage decrease before kickoff. Although it seemed like Jones had a chance to play last week, he failed to practice at all and is questionable at best for Week 5. Even if Jones does play, he won’t have the mobility necessary to move around in the pocket. News about Jones and Hoyer’s statuses could cause this spread to tick closer to a pick-’em as Sunday approaches.
Lions vs Patriots: Lions +3 (-115) at Caesars
