Thursday Night Football has the potential to be an important game in Week 5. It’s a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos, both of which are off to disappointing starts. They entered the season with playoff aspirations, so they don’t want to fall into too big of a hole early.
With this game brings another chance to play No House Advantage. There are two types of contests to play, “Pick ‘Em” and “Vs. The House.” Let’s try to help narrow down the field by highlighting some props to target.
NFL Thursday Night Football Odds and Props: No House Advantage
Matt Ryan Over 0.5 Interceptions
One of the main reasons for the Colts’ struggles has been Ryan’s poor play. His 1,125 yards passing through four games look nice, but he only has five touchdowns to show for it. He’s also had significant turnover problems, with five interceptions so far. He threw three interceptions against the Jaguars in Week 2 and has at least one in three of four games.
What’s even more concerning for Ryan in this game is that the Colts will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle). They might ask Ryan to throw more, leaving him with the potential for more interceptions. Don’t be surprised if he throws one to cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who had four interceptions during his rookie season last year.
Melvin Gordon III Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
The big news that came out of Denver earlier this week is that Javonte Williams was lost for the season after suffering a torn ACL in Week 4. The Broncos had high hopes for their young running back, giving him added work at the expense of Gordon. With Williams out, Gordon should see his workload increase. Broncos offensive coordinator Justin Outten was quoted Tuesday as saying that Gordon is “going to carry the load.”
Last season, Gordon had five games with at least 15 carries. He finished with at least 60 yards rushing in four of them. Despite the Colts allowing the sixth-fewest yards rushing per game in the NFL, Gordon’s expected increased workload makes the over appealing. The NFL Player Props Tool has Gordon projected to finish with 61.7 yards rushing.
Courtland Sutton Over 70.5 Receiving Yards
The initial returns for Denver quarterback Russell Wilson have not been good. He has thrown for more than 300 yards in a game one time and has thrown for fewer than 240 yards three times. He’s also not getting the ball into the end zone much, totaling four touchdown passes.
As underwhelming as Wilson has been, Sutton has been productive at wide receiver. He’s gone over this total in three of five games, and he’s surpassed 95 yards receiving in a game twice. The main reason he’s been successful is that the Broncos have looked his way early and often, giving him a total of 35 targets. With his target share alone, he has a favorable opportunity to reach the over. The NFL Player Props Tool has Sutton projected to record 76.5 yards receiving.
KJ Hamler Under 1.5 Receptions
This might seem like a low number to take the under on, but Hamler has barely been involved in the Broncos offense. The wide receiver caught his first pass of the season in Week 4, which he turned into a 55-yard gain against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, that would end up being his only target of the game.
Hamler did sit out Week 2 with an injury and has a total of two targets over the other three games he’s played. The Broncos clearly want to get the ball in the hands of the duo of Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, so expect Hamler to see limited opportunities again in Week 5.
