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Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds & Prediction: Take Advantage of the Line Movement in Bucs Favor (September 25)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon in what should be an entertaining affair between two good teams. While Tampa Bay opened as three-point favorites, the line has since dropped to its current spot at -1.

An identical drop occurred with the game total, sinking from 46 to 42. The betting handle for the spread and total is roughly 50/50, as of Friday afternoon.

Since joining the Bucs, Tom Brady is 2-0 SU and ATS when facing the Packers.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions

Chemistry Still in the Works for Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers has a very different looking receiving core this season following the departure of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, With such a big change, the chemistry in the passing game has not been great through the first two weeks of the season.

The offense looked terrible against the Vikings in Week 1. Things improved in Week 2 but they were facing a weak Chicago Bears team. According to PFF, the Bears entered the year with the second-worst defensive line, 18th-ranked linebacking corps and second-worst secondary.

This week presents a much more difficult test for Green Bay. Tampa Bay possesses the fifth-best defensive line, seventh-best linebacking corps and second-best secondary.

To make matters worse for this Packers offense, receivers Sammy Watkins (hamstring) and Randall Cobb (illness) did not practice on Friday and are both questionable for Sunday’s matchup. If both are unable to go, that means the Packers would be stuck with Allen Lazard, Amari Rodgers and three rookies in their wide receiving corps.

Buccaneers Should Keep Strong Start Going

Tampa Bay has started the season strong, winning and covering in each of the first two weeks. We should expect this trend to continue against Green Bay, a team they are also undefeated against (both SU and ATS) since Tom Brady joined the squad.

As mentioned above, this line has dropped two points to -1 since it opened. The likely reason for this movement is Tampa Bay’s depleted receiving corps.

Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is out (hamstring) and Russell Gage, Julio Jones and Breshad Perriman are all listed as questionable. That being said, I still anticipate Brady and Bruce Arians to manage the situation well.

I am not sure a depleted receiving corps is worth a two point drop, especially considering that the Bucs are at home and their quarterback is Tom Brady. Additionally, they are going against a horrible defensive coordinator in Joe Barry, who poorly utilizes his talented defense on a weekly basis.

While these are two very strong teams, Tampa Bay possesses more of the advantages. The quarterback battle is likely a wash but the Buccaneers boast a strong offensive line, defensive line and linebacking unit.

Green Bay likely has the stronger running back committee and secondary, but I am skeptical on whether that will be enough to take down Tampa Bay on the road. In fact, the Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction

With all the playmakers that are unlikely to play in this game, we are probably going to get a defensive struggle. With that in mind, I still don’t trust Joe Barry’s ability to quell the Buccaneers offense.

I would like the under in this game, but 42 is just too low for me to pull the trigger. However, I liked the Buccaneers at -3 and I love them at -1.

I don’t think Tampa’s receiving corps absences will be a massive problem considering the overall offense and home field advantage. Even if their offense is hindered, the two-point drop is not warranted in my opinion.

It is highly likely that these two teams meet again in the playoffs and things may go differently at that time. But until the Packers’ offense starts to work well together (specifically in the passing game), we will keep getting generous numbers on the spread.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Tampa Bay -1 (-110) at DraftKings

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