With so many incredible games and some very high totals on the Sunday main slate, don’t forget about this NFC South division dog fight matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints.
For the Saints, this will be their third divisional opponent in as many weeks, while the Panthers will get their first divisional test after losing their two opening games by a combined 5 points.
There has been a little line movement in favor of the road team and some movement to the under as well. The Saints are now 2.5-point road favorites as this line has dropped down to 40.5 points. This won’t be the most watched game of the week, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a betting edge. There are some strong trends pointing towards one particular team, so let’s get right to it and find another winner for Week 3.
Panthers vs. Saints Predictions, Picks & Week 3 Betting Odds
Can the Old McCaffrey Come Back?
Through the first two weeks of the season, it is hard to say the Baker Mayfield experience has been going well in Carolina. With backup Sam Darnold still on the IR, Mayfield isn’t being pushed much in the starter role and maybe he needs to be. Coming off of a career-low 17 touchdowns in his last season in Cleveland, Mayfield has a 53.6% completion percentage, which is tied for 30th in the league thus far. He has two touchdown passes through two games, and their offense has only scored 20 points per game.
One thing that would certainly raise Mayfield’s completion percentage is getting the ball more to Christian McCaffrey. In his only full season without being injured in 2019, McCaffrey averaged 8.9 targets per game, getting double-digit targets in half of his games. Through two weeks with Mayfield at quarterback, McCaffrey is only averaging five targets and 12.5 carries per game. That is simply not enough touches for arguably the most versatile running back in the league.
Another player who has taken a hit to start this season is wide receiver D.J. Moore. In the first two games, Moore recorded the exact same receiving line, with three catches on six targets for 43 yards. Robbie Anderson is still doing Robbie Anderson things. He caught a touchdown bomb in Week 1 and then disappeared in Week 2.
It is obvious this team has taken a hit offensively, especially passing the ball. They rank 28th in offensive pass DVOA through two games. Defensively, they haven’t been that bad. Granted, despite losing their first two games, they played the Giants and Browns, so those aren’t tough opponents. This team is in a funk. They need to get their playmakers McCaffrey and Moore the ball way more than they are right now. However, going against the Saints defense that ranked third in total DVOA and first in run DVOA last season is a tough spot. The Panthers may be playing at home, but they will struggle in this matchup.
Which Saints Team Will Show Up?
After a nice come-from-behind victory against the Falcons, the Saints disappointed in Week 2, only putting up 10 points against the Buccaneers. They stay in the NFC South for this week but get a much easier opponent with the Panthers.
Injuries are the main concern for the Saints this week. Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill are the key players who are all listed as questionable and recorded a limited practice on Friday.
Winston looked incredible in Week 1 but took a major decline in Week 2. Welcome to the Winston experience. He usually beats up on the bad teams, and the Panthers fit that mold this week. It’s awesome to see Michael Thomas healthy and dominating once again. Thomas already has three touchdown receptions and leads the Saints with a 23% target share. Second to Thomas is rookie Chris Olave, but most of these targets are coming with prayer yards. Olave is still a very nice weapon to have on the outside to take the top off the defense.
Where the Panthers really have struggled thus far is with their run defense. They rank 24th in rush DVOA through two games, as they have allowed a whopping 160 yards rushing per game, which ranks as the fourth most in the league. Kamara missed last week due to an injury, so if he were to miss, the running duties would go to veteran Mark Ingram, who ran for 58 yards last week on 10 carries. Another note to Kamara, if he is able to play, is that they need to get him more touches similar to McCaffrey. Only three catches and nine carries in Week 1 is not going to cut it.
If the Saints get at least Winston and Kamara on the field this week, don’t be surprised if this line moves more in their favor.
Panthers vs. Saints Pick
One strong trend is the Panthers failing to cover in nine straight games. That obviously dates back to last season and before Mayfield, but that is a lot of games in a row. For the record, not only have they not covered, but they haven’t won either in nine straight games.
The second strong trend is the Saints have won 12 of their last 13 road games against NFC South opponents. They are -145 on the moneyline, but getting them less than a field goal feels like a steal. Take the Saints up to -3 Sunday.
Best NFL Bet: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings | Would bet this up to -3.
Looking for a prop? Go to OddsShopper and we have every game and every prop you can think of! For this game, the prop with the highest ROI based on our Stokastic projections is Jameis Winston OVER 18.5 completions. In a game we expect the Saints to win, Winston’s projected for 19.4 completions, which is good enough for an xWin rate of 60% on this prop. Winston has averaged 24 completions per game through the first two weeks and that number could raise if Kamara is unable to play.
