The New England Patriots are coming into Green Bay this week on the heels of a disappointing home loss to the Baltimore Ravens. On the other hand, the Packers are riding high after taking down Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.
The Patriots have already ruled out two of their top offensive weapons as they will be without quarterback Mac Jones and top wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. On the Packers side of the ball, their top corner Jaire Alexander is questionable after being forced out of last week’s contest.
Neither of these teams have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball this season. The Patriots have averaged less than 17 points per game and the Packers are averaging only 16 points per game. Those are bottom 10 in the league type numbers through the first three weeks of the season.
Patriots vs. Packers Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Hoyer Looks to Take Advantage of Starting Opportunity
The biggest story coming into this battle at Lambeau Field is that Brian Hoyer will be getting his first start since 2020. The 36-year-old quarterback has a 16-23 straight up record and has not recorded a win since his tenure in Chicago in 2016. Look for Hoyer to do more handing off than Mac Jones this week as this looks like a game that the Patriots should be leaning heavily on their run game.
The Patriots will also be without their top wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who has already been ruled out for the Week 4 matchup. Expect DeVante Parker to see more playing time. Parker produced well in Meyers’ place in Week 3, catching five passes for 156 yards.
Green Bay’s defensive unit is top 10 in the NFL this season and should feast against a depleted Patriots offence. While their offense has taken some time to get warmed up without star wide receiver Davante Adams, the Packers’ defense remains a powerful unit that ranks 6th in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed. They held Bucs’ running back Leonard Fournette to just 35 yards on the ground in Week 3.
If Alexander is able to suit up, it will no doubt give an added boost toa team that is hungry to show what they can do against one of the greatest coaches of all time.
Packers Offense vs. Patriots Defense
Aside from the Week 2 game at home against the Chicago Bears, this Packers offense has looked extremely pedestrian. Aaron Rodgers has looked out of sync with his top pass catchers, but getting Allen Lazard back has improved this team’s red zone production over their last two games.
The Packers have also been very vocal about using both of their running backs which has been reflected in the early going. A.J. Dillon has seen 40 carries and 8 catches through the teams first three games while Aaron Jones has just 32 carries, but 9 receptions. The two backs have combined for three of the team’s six touchdowns this year.
The good news is that rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs has looked great and tight end Robert Tonyan is getting healthier every week after his injury last season. Not only that, star offensive tackle David Bhaktiari is expected to rejoin the lineup on Sunday.
New England’s defense ranks 10th in yards allowed, but is in the bottom half of the league in points allowed as they are allowing teams to score just under 24 points per game. Their struggles are real on both sides of the ball so far for the Patriots.
Trends to Monitor
Aaron Rodgers is 1-2 against the Patriots straight up, but this is a new-look New England squad since their last meeting in 2018.
Bill Belichick is 30-17-2 against the spread as an underdog. He is 6-2 against the spread as a six-or-more point underdog. Belichick is also 11-1 against the spread as an underdog coming off a loss.
Everyone and their dogs are using the Packers as their survivor play this week and thinking that the Patriots will get smoked in a low-scoring affair at Lambeau, but who says that New England isn’t just going to control the clock and keep it “close-enough”? I believe that the Packers should win this matchup, but against such an incredible coach like Belichick, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Patriots cover this two score spread.
This is a very tough line because it has been fluctuating between 9.5 and 11.5 all week as that key number of 10 means a lot. With such a low total of 40 expected for this game where both teams will look to feature both of their backs, this game could turn into a field position nightmare with time quickly evaporating. Getting the hook of 10/10.5 points is the ideal spot if you are looking to back the Patriots, but getting 9.5 feels more like a stay away.
Best NFL Bet: Buy the hook if you need to, but Patriots +10.5 (-125)
