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Ravens vs. Bills Betting Odds & Prediction: Take Baltimore to Cover as a Strong Home Underdog Bet (October 2)

The best game on Sunday’s slate is this matchup between two AFC juggernauts, the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills. Both teams come into this week at 2-1, each having lost to the Miami Dolphins.

The game features the highest total of Week 4 at 51 points, with the Bills as 3-point road favorites. Buffalo was favored by four points with the total at 54.5 points, but that has dropped significantly.

Let’s dive in and find a betting edge, along with the highest projected ROI and win rate props for this AFC showdown.

Ravens vs. Bills Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions

Is There Anyone Who Can Stop Lamar Jackson?

Through three weeks, the Ravens lead the league in Offensive DVOA due to quarterback Lamar Jackson. The superstar leads all quarterbacks with 10 passing touchdowns and a 78.1 QBR. The dual-threat ability with Jackson really sets him apart from the rest at his position. Jackson not only leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards, but ranks tied for fifth in rushing yards and leads the league in rushing yards per carry including all running backs. It may be time to pay the man before his price keeps going up.

Jackson’s main target thus far is once again tight end Mark Andrews, who leads the league in target share with a career-high 35.2%. Andrews is averaging 12 targets per game in back-to-back games after a relatively quiet Week 1. He has three touchdowns in his last two games and leads this receiving core by a landslide in targets, receptions, and yards.

Following Andrews are a couple of burner wide receivers in Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay. Both wideouts have shown promise and have five touchdowns combined, but Andrews is still Jackson’s main security blanket. Losing Marquise Brown during the off-season has hurt them, but Bateman and Duvernay have upside to take any slant to the house.

The Ravens also got second-year running back J.K. Dobbins back from injury last week. That will take some of the rushing load off of Jackson, but this super talented quarterback has led this offense to 33 points per game, which leads the league.

Attacking this Bills defense may be getting a little easier with so many secondary injuries. Buffalo still ranks second in defense DVOA, but cornerback Tre’Davious White and free safety Micah Hyde are for sure out this week, while strong safety Jordan Poyer is questionable after missing last week. The Ravens have averaged 380.3 yards per game and have the best kicker in the league with Justin Tucker. They will find a way to put points on the scoreboard.

Another Tough Matchup for The Bills

A disappointing road loss last week after two dominating victories may have humbled this Bills team. They have been pretty dominant following a loss recently. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four games as favorites following a loss. The favorite in this matchup has won four-straight games as well, so there are a few positive trends favoring the Bills going into this tough Baltimore environment.

Quarterback Josh Allen is second in the league behind Jackson in passing touchdowns and leads the league in yards averaging an incredible 338 per game. Allen has dual threat ability as well, but does most of his damage with his rocket arm. The Bills rank first in total DVOA, second in total yards, and third in points per game. This game has the makings of a shootout.

Stefon Diggs is the obvious top wide receiver as he leads the league with four receiving touchdowns and a very impressive 114.7 yards per game. Behind Diggs is Gabe Davis who had a lot of offseason hype, but an injury has slowed him down a little bit. He still has a very high ceiling as shown by the Bills playoff run last season where Davis had 242 receiving yards and five touchdowns in only two games. Slot wide receivers Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder round out this very talented receiving group.

The Ravens defense ranks 23rd in rush DVOA this season, so this three-headed committee backfield of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and James Cook could cause some problems in this matchup. However, if this is going to truly be a shootout, expect Allen and the passing game to get most of the action. They ran 90 plays last week in a non-overtime game and Allen had 63 passing attempts. Push comes to shove, Allen is throwing the rock every play.

One key defensive player the Ravens will get in the lineup this week is key off-season signee Jason Pierre-Paul. It is uncertain how much he will play, but it will help the Ravens pass rush. Expect a bounce back performance from the Bills this week, but it is yet another tough spot going into Baltimore. There is a lot of pressure for Allen to lead this offense each and every game.

Ravens vs. Bills Prediction

There is going to be a plethora of points scored in this matchup and even though the over sounds enticing when 10 of the last 15 Ravens games have gone over, I am going to take the home underdog getting a field goal this week.

The Ravens are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games as an underdog under Head Coach John Harbough, which includes 5-0 since the 2019 season. As a team thus far they rank second in turnover differential in the league and have eight total takeaways through three games. Lamar Jackson is obviously out to prove his worth and getting Dobbins healthy can help propel this offense even more. Let’s take the home underdog in what could be the AFC title game.

Looking for a player prop bet to take as well? I’ll provide two based on what Oddshopper has for this game.

The best projected win rate prop is Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -178. We have him projected for 2.3 passing touchdowns in this game and he has captured that in each game so far this season.

The best projected ROI prop is Devin Singletary under 35.5 rushing yards at -114. For starters, Allen leads this Bills team in rushing yards, while Singletary has averaged 16 yards per game in his last two games. Where Singletary has been much better is the passing game where he ranks second on the team in target share.

Best NFL Bet: Baltimore Ravens +3 (-110) at DraftKings

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