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Steelers vs. Colts Prediction & Odds: Colts to Score Plenty Under Jeff Saturday

The 2022 season hasn’t gone as planned for either the 4-6-1 Indianapolis Colts or the 3-7 Pittsburgh Steelers. Neither team looks like a legitimate playoff contender, and both have made quarterback changes this year. The Colts are slight home favorites in the NFL odds. Bettors hoping to make a profit on Monday Night Football should tail these Steelers-Colts predictions and picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other smart plays.

Bettor should also keep an eye on the most popular Steelers-Colts bets tonight.

NFL Odds: Steelers-Colts Odds

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Kenny Pickett is Off to a Slow Start

Things haven’t gone well in Pittsburgh this year. Head coach Mike Tomlin is on track for his first-ever losing season as the Steelers flounder around at the bottom of the AFC. The Steelers have dropped three of their last four games and haven’t won on the road since Week 1.

Pittsburgh’s struggles stem from an inept offense that ranks 31st in yards per play. The passing offense has struggled under rookie Kenny Pickett. The Steelers rank 27th in expected points added (EPA) per pass (-0.05), and Pickett’s 5.04 net yards per attempt (NY/A) ranks last among 35 eligible quarterbacks. Although Pickett has delivered on-target throws on 73.1% of his attempts, he is tied for the third-most time spent in the pocket (2.4 seconds) and ranks 24th in sack rate (7.8%). He also ranks 34th in interception rate (3.4%).

Despite Pickett’s struggles, the Steelers have run a relatively fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. They rank 10th in seconds per play (28.3) and 13th in pass play percentage (60.6%). This has come at the expense of a somewhat more efficient rushing attack. The Steelers rank seventh in EPA per rush (-0.01) but only 21st in yards per rush attempt (4.2) — although that ranking jumps to seventh for just the last three games (5.1).

Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t played well but is trending in the right direction — getting star pass rusher T.J. Watt back should help tremendously. The Steelers rank 25th in EPA per pass (0.12) and 21st in EPA per rush (-0.05) on the year but rank an encouraging 19th in EPA per pass (0.13) and sixth in EPA per rush (-0.32) since Watt’s return in Week 10. Still, the defense ranks only 26th in yards allowed per play (5.8) and 31st in passing yards allowed per game (272.1), so there is much room for improvement.

Colts Improving Under Jeff Saturday

Not much has gone right in Indianapolis, either. The Colts fired veteran head coach Frank Reich and replaced him with Jeff Saturday partway through the season. They turned back to quarterback Matt Ryan after he recovered from an injury as well. The Colts sit two games behind the Titans in the AFC South, so they’ll need to have an impressive run down the stretch to earn a playoff spot.

Like the Steelers, the Colts own an atrocious offense. The Colts rank 27th in yards per play (4.9), 24th in yards per pass attempt (6.7) and 24th in yards per rush attempt (4.1). They fare even worse in EPA — the rushing offense ranks 31st in EPA per play (-0.2) and the passing offense ranks 29th (-0.14). That said, the Colts are trending up with Saturday at the helm. They rank 17th in EPA per rush (-0.07) and 21st in EPA per pass (0.04) since he took over.

The Colts owe some of their recent success to improved offensive line play. Matt Ryan faced pressure on only 3.3% of his dropbacks against the Raiders, and although the line gave up pressure on 27.8% of his dropbacks against the Eagles, such struggles were to be expected against Philadelphia’s beefed-up pass rush. Running back Jonathan Taylor even got a full five yards before contact per attempt against the Raiders.

The defense remains a bright spot in Indianapolis. The Colts rank an impressive sixth in yards allowed per play (5). Their run defense ranks fourth in EPA per play (-0.14) and their pass defense ranks 11th (0.01). The pass rush even ranks eighth in pressure percentage (22.7%) on the sixth-lowest blitz rate (15.2%). That said, Pickett leads the NFL in completion percentage under pressure (58.6%), so they’ll need to bring him down to actually have an advantage.

Final Steelers-Colts Prediction & Pick

Backing the over in a matchup between two struggling offenses may not feel great, but the number is just too low for tonight’s game. It sits at just 39.5, which requires these teams to score just 10 points per quarter. The over has drawn 68% of the cash on just 55% of the tickets but hasn’t budged from where it opened.

While the standard total offers some value, bettors are bets off backing the Colts to beat their team total, which sits in the plus money at just 20.5. They beat that total against Las Vegas in Saturday’s first game as head coach, and they came five points shy of it against Philadelphia last week. The Steelers operate at a quick enough pace to frequently give the ball back to the Colts, and they just allowed 37 points last week. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 24th in points allowed per game (24.4) on the year.

Final Steelers-Colts Pick: Colts Team Total Over 20.5 (+100) at DraftKings 

Steelers-Colts Prediction OddsShopper 

OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Steelers-Colts Monday Night Football matchup, the model has identified Pittsburgh’s quarterback as a player to fade at his current price.

Best Steelers-Colts prediction: Betting the under on Kenny Pickett‘s total rushing yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!

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