Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns fell back to Earth after solid Week 1 wins. The Steelers dropped a winnable game to the New England Patriots after accumulating only 243 yards. The Browns choked away a 13-point lead late in the fourth quarter after giving up two quick scores to the New York Jets. Heading into Thursday Night Football, the sportsbooks predict the Browns will top the Steelers by slightly more than a field goal. The betting odds also indicate this should be a low-scoring game, as the books have set the total to only 38.
Quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett head into their Week 3 meeting with hopes of redemption. Trubisky had two chances to tie the game but failed. Brissett threw a game-ending interception that ended any of Cleveland’s hopes at a go-ahead field goal.
Steelers vs. Browns Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Steelers vs. Browns Betting Odds
Can Steelers Reimagine Their Terrible Offense?
Beleaguered signal-caller Mitch Trubisky has played like nothing more than a bridge quarterback in his two starts for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He has completed only 59.2% of his passes for 362 yards and two scores. Trubisky has thrown a pick, taken four sacks and recorded just 4.59 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Only one Pittsburgh receiver has gone for more than 60 yards receiving in a single game thus far: tight end Pat Freiermuth. The offensive line certainly isn't to blame -- Trubisky has faced pressure on only 12.8% of his dropbacks.
Pittsburgh's offensive struggles stem from a historical overreliance on the passing game. Although second-year running back Najee Harris came into the year with considerable hype, the Steelers still ranked 29th in rushing yards per game last year with 93.1. Pittsburgh has ranked 29th or worse in the metric over the last four seasons. The team hasn't averaged more than 100 rushing yards per game since 2017. The Steelers have relied on their quarterbacks and wide receivers ever since Le'Veon Bell's last full season with the team, and with Ben Roethlisberger retired, the chickens are coming home to roost.
Building something new on offense is now all the more important with star pass rusher T.J. Watt injured. In Week 1, the Steelers sacked Joe Burrow seven times and pressured him on 21.5% of his dropbacks. But in Week 2, the Steelers failed to sack Mac Jones and pressured him on just 13.2% of his dropbacks. Jones recorded an efficient 7.2 NY/A in the Week 2 loss. The run defense has been a silver lining -- after giving up a league-high 5 yards per carry in 2021, the Steelers are only giving up 4 per carry thus far, which ranks 10th.
Cleveland Has a Loaded Roster, Isn't Clutch
Like Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett has also played like nothing more than a bridge quarterback. That said, Brissett has played more efficiently. Through two weeks, Brissett has completed 65.6% of his passes for 376 yards and two scores, good for 5.7 NY/A. He has taken only two sacks and thrown but one pick, albeit a brutal game-ender against New York.
Brissett benefits from an elite supporting cast that has played well thus far. Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt lead Cleveland's run-first offense, which averages a league-high 200.5 rushing yards per game on a fourth-best 5.3 yards per carry. The Browns ranked fourth and first in those metrics last year, respectively, behind an offensive line that ranked first in adjusted line yards. Through Week 2, that unit ranks 13th in adjusted line yards but first in power success and third in adjusted sack rate. However, the unit might be without guard Joel Bitonio, who missed practice, and right tackle Jack Conklin, who is still working his way back from an injury.
Cleveland's defense has played relatively well, but the unit has faltered at key moments. The Browns have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 21% of their dropbacks but have allowed 258 passing yards per game, which ranks 25th. However, the Browns may struggle to maintain that pressure rate with Myles Garrett banged up, Jadeveon Clowney out and Chase Winovich on injured reserve. Cleveland also ranks 23rd in third down conversions allowed per game and 19th in yards allowed per play. Those woes in the clutch reared their head in the form of a 75-yard Robbie Anderson touchdown in Week 1 and a 66-yard Corey Davis touchdown in Week 2. The Browns and Ravens are tied at 32nd in fourth-quarter points allowed.
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction
The Browns have suffered a bunch of key injuries that could seriously limit them on Thursday Night Football. Garrett, Clowney and Winovich playing at less than 100% or sitting out will doom Cleveland's pass rush. The trio have accounted for 46.4% of the team's quarterback pressures this year. That should give Mitch Trubisky plenty of time in the pocket to find his receivers downfield.
Of Pittsburgh's talented receiving corps, George Pickens stands to benefit the most. Cleveland's coverage has routinely broken down against fast wideouts working on the perimeter. While that would normally lead me to target Chase Claypool, the Steelers have forced him into a slot role, much like they did with JuJu Smith-Schuster. Following Week 2, 77.3% of Claypool's snaps have come in the slot. Pickens trails Claypool and Johnson in route participation and target share but leads Claypool in air yards share. If Trubisky can deliver two accurate passes to Pickens in Week 3, the rookie wideout should easily beat his relatively low receiving yardage total.
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction: George Pickens Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Steelers vs. Browns OddsShopper Model Prediction
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