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Super Bowl 56 Three Top NFL Player Props Picks

The Top Prop Picks column will break down key matchups for the most important players for Super Bowl 56 to help those making NFL player prop bets. Even after two weeks of bets flying in on these players, the Awesemo projections are still finding a ton of edges in player props betting, and NFL Betting and DFS Analyst Matt Savoca is here to highlight his favorites out of all the matchups this week.

Super Bowl 56 Top NFL Player Props

Matthew Stafford Over 279.5 Yards Passing (DraftKings)

Stafford has been playing some of his best football during his team’s current postseason run. He only needed 17 pass attempts to beat the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, throwing for just 202 yards in that 34-11 trouncing of the Cardinals, but in the last two games the Rams have needed him and he delivered in both instances. Over his last two games he has averaged nearly 8.5 yards per attempt and completed 71% of his 83 passes. He has topped 330 yards passing in both games. And on Sunday the Rams will almost certainly be leaning on the pass once again, as they rank top five in both game script-adjusted pace of play and in game-adjusted pass rate in Awesemo’s Advanced Stats Tool.
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Most importantly, they averaged over 293 yards passing per game this season, so despite Cincinnati playing better defensively over the last month, there is not really a strong argument for putting Stafford’s prop line at more than 5% below his season average. Stafford is projected for over 291 yards passing in the Awesemo projections, but considering his season averages, that is a fairly conservative estimate. Stafford hits 280 or more yards in 61% of Awesemo’s latest simulations.

Tyler Boyd Over 39.5 Yards Receiving (FanDuel)

The Bengals will need big games from Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, but bettors would be remiss to forget about Boyd. Despite having less opportunity than his receiving game counterparts, Boyd continues to run routes at more than 95% clip. He is the third-most targeted receiver on his own team, but Boyd ranked in the top 40 receivers in the NFL in targets per game this season and was one of the league leaders in slot snaps per game. Playing primarily in the slot, that positioning may ultimately be particularly advantageous in this game, as Boyd is the least likely to lined up against all-world cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

With defenders like Aaron Donald breathing down Joe Burrow’s neck, Burrow will need a reliable short-area target to soak up short gains. Boyd has seen at least five targets in four of his last five starts, and while he is averaging just under 4.5 yards per target during the postseason, the Awesemo projections are suggesting that number will climb closer to his season-long average of 8.8. If Boyd gets back to that middling yards-per-reception rate, he will smash his modest 39.5 yards receiving total by the third quarter. He is not the most enticing play on the DFS slate, but going over on this sub-40-yard receiving prop is too good to pass up. Boyd hits 40 or more yards receiving in 60% of Awesemo’s simulations.

Joe Mixon Under 4.5 Receptions (PointsBet)

For the Super Bowl, the Awesemo projections tend to favor several under bets on reception props. According to OddsShopper, seven of Awesemo’s nine highest-probability receptions prop bets for Super Bowl 56 are under bets. The highest-probability under play of them all is for Mixon. He has been used frequently as a receiver at times this year and earned five or more reception in four of his last five games. But Mixon continues to get spelled in clear passing downs by Samaje Perine, who also has been making the most of his limited opportunities this postseason.

While Mixon has continued to prove himself a capable receiver, he had just three receptions for 27 yards against the Chiefs. The Rams ranked No. 1 in PFF’s team defensive grade and top 10 in both yards per carry and yards per pass attempt allowed this season, and the Awesemo projections are suggesting a fairly frustrating day for Mixon. His range of outcomes is fairly large in this contest. He is still a high-volume player in a potential shootout, and he is in the optimal lineup in DFS nearly a third of the time in Awesemo’s latest sims. But in most of those sims, even when successful, he gets there in a way other than through the air. Mixon comes up short of five receptions in a whopping 77% of Awesemo’s latest Super Bowl simulations.

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