After a wild upset over the San Francisco 49ers, the Chicago Bears struggled against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. In contrast, the Houston Texans followed up their tie against the Indianapolis Colts with a surprisingly tight road game against the Denver Broncos. Both teams enter Week 3 slightly overperforming preseason expectations, and the books predict the Bears will beat the Texans in a close, low-scoring game.
The player prop markets speak to the limited offenses of both teams. Neither Davis Mills nor Justin Fields is projected to throw for more than 220 yards, and no running back owns a rushing yardage total above 70. That should come as no surprise — Chicago’s passing offense has been incredibly unproductive through two games.
Texans vs. Bears Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Texans vs. Bears Betting Odds
Texans Defense Gets Burned in the Passing Game
The Texans have played as well as their limited roster will allow. The Texans sit at 0-1-1 after playing two opponents projected to qualify for the playoffs, but both games came down to the wire -- their opponents combined for 27 fourth-quarter points. Quarterback Davis Mills has done his job but nothing more. Through two games, he has completed 56% of his passes for 417 yards, two scores and no interceptions. However, he has taken six sacks, which drops his net yards per attempt (NY/A) to just 4.64, below the 5.78 NY/A he recorded last season.
Houston's offense has relied on chunk passing plays due to inconsistent play on the ground. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce is averaging 3.92 yards per carry (YPC) but has been stuffed for no gain or a loss on five plays. Veteran Rex Burkhead is averaging 2.85 YPC. Much of the blame falls on the offensive line, which ranks 26th in adjusted line yards. As a result, much of Houston's offensive production has stemmed from long throws from Mills to Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins. Cooks has caught at least one pass for 25 or more yards in each game this season.
The defense has allowed two late-game comebacks in consecutive weeks, but it managed to stifle opposing offenses until late in the game. The Texans rank eighth in third-down conversion percentage (33.3%) and 17th in yards allowed per play (5.6). The pass rush has been a key part of Houston's defense, with the unit creating pressure on 22.1% of dropbacks. That said, rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has gotten burned by opposing boundary receivers late in big moments. His two main assignments this season, Michael Pittman Jr. and Courtland Sutton, reeled in a combined 18 catches for 243 yards receiving against Houston. The run defense has also allowed 163 rushing yards per game, which ranks 30th, on 4.7 YPC.
Chicago Doesn't Have a Passing Game
The Chicago Bears have taken an interesting offensive approach this year. The club ranks dead last in passing play percentage (34%) by a six-point margin. The Bears have attempted only 32 passes this season. The bad weather in Week 1 and Justin Fields' playstyle explain some of this discrepancy -- Fields has taken four sacks and scrambled five times -- but Chicago's passing offense has nonetheless looked nonexistent. Fields has thrown for only 191 yards this season, a number that 25 quarterbacks have already doubled. The fact that Chicago's offensive line has allowed pressure on 45.4% of his dropbacks certainly hasn't helped.
Almost all of Chicago's plays fall into two buckets: runs and chunk passes. In Week 1, 80.4% of Fields' net yards came on four completions. In Week 2, 70.5% of his net yards came on just two completions. The Bears have attempted 64 rushes and generated 279 total rushing yards, which ranks eighth in per-game production. Still, the Bears rank only 18th in rushing yards per attempt. Running back David Montgomery is responsible for the bulk of that production, but backup Khalil Herbert has provided some help as well.
Chicago's defense has struggled against the run. While the Bears have allowed an NFL-high 189.5 rushing yards per game, their matchup with the run-first 49ers and run-heavy game script against the Packers render that number higher than it should be. The Bears rank an uninspiring but less terrible 25th yards allowed per carry (5.1 YPC) and rank 27th in third-down conversion rate (50%). Poor run defense aside, the pass rush deserves credit for pressuring opposing quarterbacks on 33.3% of their dropbacks. That said, with star linebacker Roquan Smith banged up, the entire unit could struggle against Houston.
Texans vs. Bears Prediction
Houston's rookie running back, Dameon Pierce, beat out veteran Marlon Mack for the starting job in the offseason. Head coach Lovie Smith has ravished the youngster with praise, saying that Pierce gives an extra effort that his teammates sometimes do not. After Pierce ran the ball only 11 times in Week 1, Smith called that decision a "mistake," which he remedied in Week 2 by giving Pierce 15 carries. Pierce is averaging 3.92 YPC after facing defensive lines that rank second in 11th in adjusted line yards. Chicago's unit ranks 20th.
A breakout game from Pierce appears inevitable. What the rookie lacks in athleticism he makes up for with effort and intelligence. He makes the confident cuts necessary to make the most of each carry despite playing behind a mediocre offensive line. A breakout game appears inevitable. With 10-to-20 mile-per-hour winds in the forecast for Sunday, the Texans may need to lean a bit more on their running game than usual.
Texans vs. Bears Prediction: Dameon Pierce Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Texans vs. Bears OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 3 matchup between the Texans and Bears, the model has identified a Chicago receiver as a player to fade at his current price.
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