The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Houston Texans on Sunday. As the NFL’s last winless team, Houston looks to grab its first victory on the road in this divisional matchup.
This week is the first of two meetings between these clubs this season. In unfamiliar territory, the Jaguars at 2-2 are tied at the top of the AFC South.
Jacksonville opened up as 6.5-point favorites before being bet up to 7.5, which is where the line currently sits. As of Friday afternoon, 59% of the bets and 65% of the handle are on the Jaguars.
Texans vs. Jaguars Week 5 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Houston Defense to Have Another Bad Outing
After surrendering 34 points to the Los Angeles Chargers last week, we should expect the Texans defense to continue to slide. Regression was extremely predictable, a trend that likely will continue into this week.
Prior to last week, the Texans defensive statistics were strong because of their easy opening to the season. Before the Chargers, Houston faced the offensively challenged Indianapolis Colts (last in points per game), a broken Denver Broncos offense (second-last in points per game), and a laughable Chicago Bears offense (third-last in points per game).
Clearly, facing Los Angeles last week was a rude awakening for a team that is winless despite starting the year against the three worst offenses in football (the Texans tied the Colts). Despite this cupcake schedule, Houston is still getting killed on the ground.
Entering Week 5, the Texans rank second-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. This group allowed 175 rushing + receiving yards to Jonathan Taylor in Week 1, 85 rushing + receiving yards to Javonte Williams in Week 2, 169 rushing + receiving yards to Khalil Herbert in Week 3, and 109 rushing + receiving yards to Austin Ekeler in Week 4.
Great Opportunity for Travis Etienne
Though rookie Travis Etienne is RB2 for the Jaguars, he still gets his fair share of playing time in a split backfield. Yes, James Robinson gets more action, but Etienne has 8-16 touches each of the last three weeks.
The question is, can Etienne produce while only touching the ball somewhere in that window? Against this Houston team, he should be able to.
For this game, Etienne’s rushing + receiving yards prop currently sits at 52.5, a number he has gone over in three of his first four NFL games. The only game he did not was last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, a top-10 defense in football (and the game was essentially played in a tropical storm in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian).
We are getting such a low total because of his status as RB2, but eight to 16 touches should definitely be enough to get over this total considering how bad Houston’s defense is. Not only is Etienne the featured third-down back, but the Jaguars also use him in the early downs to give the defense a different look.
Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction
Houston has gotten killed on the ground all season and that should not change in this matchup. Entering the season, PFF ranked its defensive line as the third-worst in football and its linebacking corps as the second-worst.
I expect Robinson and Etienne to have huge games for Jacksonville, and Etienne’s total is set too low at 52.5. Houston has proved to struggle against pass-catching halfbacks who do not always start.
For example, Colts RB2 Nyheim Hines had six catches for 50 yards against the Texans in Week 1. Frankly, I could see Etienne flirting with this number either via rushing or receiving, but with both options contributing to the total, he should go over.
Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction: Travis Etienne Over 52.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
