There is a four-game NHL schedule to comb through and value on the board on Wednesday, so let’s dive in and see which bets are going to make the money, including targeting some of the weakest defenses in the league. For more NHL odds, best bets and parlays be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool.
Best NHL Bets Tonight and NHL Odds
Odds via FanDuel
Maple Leafs-Sharks: Maple Leafs First Period Puck Line -0.5 (+104)
The Toronto Maple Leafs should absolutely hop on this San Jose Sharks team tonight on home ice. Despite the Sharks beating the Montreal Canadiens 4-0 last night in Montreal, this is a wildly difficult back-to-back against a white-hot Maple Leafs club. Toronto is 11-1-4 over its last 15 games and skyrocketed to fourth place in the NHL standings.
The Leafs have hit their offensive stride as well. They might sit 18th in offense and 12th in expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, but they’ve managed four goals in each of their last three games. Even worse for the opposition these days is the fact the team’s big guns are firing on all cylinders. Mitchell Marner carries a 17-game point streak into this one, Auston Matthews has two goals and 5 points over his last two, William Nylander has a goal in three straight, and John Tavares has 5 points over his last five games.
The scary thing is Matthews has yet to fully take off, as his 10.7% shooting rate for the season is miles below his 16.1% career mark and his previous career low of 14.3%. He’s hot at the moment and could very likely score goals in bunches moving forward.
Despite missing their three highest-paid defensemen at the moment, the Leafs still are fourth in overall defense and eighth in expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five action. The opportunity is ripe for the Leafs to take it to the Sharks early and often tonight.
Sabres-Red Wings: Over 6.5 Goals (-114)
The Sabres have been especially bad on the back end of late, dropping 10 of their last 12 games and allowing 4.25 goals per game on average in that time. They’ve also allowed at least five goals in exactly half of those 12 games, so this defense has regressed in a major way of late.
That said, the Sabres continue to score goals. Surprisingly, they still are fifth in goals per game (3.68) on the season and have scored 19 goals over their last four games. The offense is hardly to blame for their lengthy skid.
The Red Wings actually haven’t been too bad on the back end, both from a surface and underlying standpoint. However, Alex Nedeljkovic has an ugly 4.01 goals against average (GAA) and .880 save percentage across seven appearances and actually yielded eight goals to these Sabres back on Halloween night in Buffalo.
At the same time, it could very well be Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen going for the Sabres between the pipes. If so, he’d bring a disastrous 4.28 GAA and .845 save percentage into action across three periods. It’s a small sample, sure, but he also has a subpar 3.33 GAA and .902 save percentage in 16 career NHL outings, so the visitors are dealing with a weak goaltender as well. There is plenty of evidence in support of the over tonight in Detroit.
Oilers-Blackhawks: Oilers Puck Line (+112)
The Oilers can score with the best of them and have perhaps the top two players on the planet in their top six. They are 10th in overall offense, tied for third on the power play and 10th once again in expected goals per 60 at five-on-five. However, it’s this Chicago defense that’s concerning.
The Blackhawks rank 29th in overall defense, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. They also are 26th on the penalty kill, 31st in shot attempts against per 60 at five-on-five and 27th in expected goals against in the same scenario. These figures don’t bode well in slowing down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl tonight.
Defense has certainly been an issue for the Oilers as well, but they’ll take on a Blackhawks offense that ranks 31st in both overall offense and expected goals per 60 at five-on-five. This group has been wildly poor at both ends of the ice, and its 30th-ranked -26 goal differential is evidence of just that.
Look for the Oilers to win this one by at least a pair of goals.
