The first event of the PGA Tour 2022-23 season is here, and it heads to California for the Fortinet Championship. The venue this week is located in Napa Valley and hosted by Silverado Country Club, a shorter par 72 that has become a bit of a playground for players with good off-tee metrics. For Fortinet Championship first-round leader bets, this article will not only target players with good recent form, but also emphasize players who have been decently off the tee of late.
OddsShopper golf betting tools below will help to look for some value from the big hitters with preferred early tee times.
2022 Fortinet Championship First Round Leader Bets
From a tee time perspective, data is pretty skewed. Six of the last seven iterations of this event have featured first-round leaders from the morning wave, and five of the last seven first-round leaders have exclusively teed off in the morning. Last year, Chez Reavie opened with a 65 at this event, but players have gone even lower than that on Thursday, with three of the last five first-round leaders shooting 63 or better.
Best First Round Leader Betting Picks
Davis Riley First Round Leader +4000 | BetMGM
Davis Riley is a play in the outright market as well, but there’s some merit to looking at him for first-round leader bets. He did fatigue towards the end of last season, but when he was at his best, he put together some really fast starts. Opening 65s at both the Sony Open and the Valspar and then opening 67s at tougher venues like Colonial and Muirfield Village bely a player who isn’t intimidated by any layout.
He has an early tee time as well that has him slated to go off just about an hour after the first group, so the air should be slightly warmer and the greens still receptive. His grouping with Sahith Theegala and Taylor Pendrith (two other players who were great on the Korn Ferry Tour) should also make for a comfortable setting.
Wyndham Clark First Round Leader +6000 | BetMGM
Wyndham Clark is always tempting in the outright market, as his elite putting and off-tee play have had him in contention late on Sunday numerous times during his PGA Tour career. However, Clark is a better bet in a one-off situation like the first-round leader market where he does not need his approach play to be good for four rounds (it rarely holds up).
The venue this week really does favor Clark’s style of game, though, as it doesn’t challenge players with a ton of hard approaches and often comes down to who is driving it best and most in rhythm with the putter. Clark was a fast starter throughout last season and opened with rounds of 63 and 65 at the Canadian Open and Travelers just a couple of months ago. At 60-1 (essentially the same price as his outright market), Clark is a solid bet for first-round leader, especially since he tees off in the fourth group on Thursday.
If looking to make a wager on BetMGM this week, then Clark is a first-round leader target to consider at that sportsbook. He has solid 60-1 odds there (bigger odds than other places), and new BetMGM users get a risk-free bet up to $1,000!
Longshot First Round Leader Picks
Rather than just pound the top of the board in the first-round leader market, look for a few longer shots. This event has seen lots of first-round leaders come from what can kindly be called the “less than elite” tier of the field, and there are some players trending for longer odds and early tee times that certainly bear looking into.
Brandon Wu First Round Leader +9000 | DraftKings
Brandon Wu had a great second half of the season and ranks in the top 25 of this field in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds. Wu’s also a California native who has shown he’s not afraid to go low on these easier setups, shooting 63 in the final round of the Mexico Open last year and a 64 of the first round at Wyndham. He’s in the back half of the morning wave, so backing him at these long odds makes sense in Round 1.
Tyler Duncan First Round Leader +9000 | DraftKings
Tyler Duncan’s off-tee game has been extremely solid of late, to the point where he ranks ninth in strokes gained off the tee over the last 50 rounds. While he was up and down with the rest of his game towards the end of the year, his off-tee prowess can only help at a venue like Silverado. It’s worth noting that he’s been a c0-first-round leader at this venue before, shooting 65 in 2017. Duncan looks like a perfect one-round target, and an early tee time gets him on the card.
Stephan Jaeger First Round Leader +8000 | BetMGM
Jaeger goes off in the very first group on Thursday, which isn’t always ideal since cooler temperatures can often prevail early morning. This is California in September, though, and there is not much poor weather to worry about. The greens should be receptive, and Jaeger showed quite a bit of confidence down the stretch last season. He will be playing Silverado for the fourth time in his career this week (the most of any PGA Tour venue) and looked very comfortable on poa greens in August when he tied for fifth in Detroit.
