OddsShopper
ArticlesVideosExpert PicksPromotions
HomeFree ToolsPremium ToolsOffersAccount
Categories PGA

2022 Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader Picks: Adam Svensson & Denny McCarthy Off to a Hot Start?

The Sanderson Farms Championship is a low-scoring event where players will have four easy par 5s to beat up on this week. The Country Club of Jackson has now yielded winning scores of 21 under or better in two of the past four seasons and plays as a par 72 at just over 7,400 yards. There’s nothing overly fancy about the course although the rough and skinny fairways do mean that at least some consistency off the tee is needed. The last four or so winners here have proven that point, as each of them gained 2.5 strokes or more off the tee for the week of their win.

When looking for first-round leaders at the Country Club of Jackson, ball-striking is the area we want/need to emphasize first. Obviously, we need players with some putting upside too — on what are often noted as some of the purest greens on the PGA TOUR — but if our player is out of position too much off the tee, then those birdie putts will turn into putts for par quickly and kill any chance at grabbing a low round. As for tee times, the last five seasons have all seen at least one first-round leader come from the AM wave. There have been lots of PM players tie for the first-round lead over that span, as well, and the weather this week has low winds across the board. If there’s good value available, we should be looking to mix and match tee times as we please, perhaps only avoiding the really late PM players in case the greens get too dried out.

I’ve used OddsShopper golf betting tools below to help us look for some value as we try to target big hitters with our preferred early tee times.

2022 Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader Bets

Best First Round Leader Betting Picks

Adam Svensson First Round Leader +7000 | DraftKings

Adam Svensson is coming off a nice performance at the Fortinet Championship where he gained over 3.0 strokes off the tee and managed a 12th place finish despite losing strokes putting. His best finishes from last season came on Bermuda greens so we can perhaps expect a dramatic uptick this week in that department from his game, as well. His past results at this tournament don’t jump off the page but Svensson has shown vast improvement over the last six months or so just in terms of consistency. From a value perspective, jumping on him at what I’d consider a very big number for betting purposes makes a lot of sense.

A couple of months ago he started the Barbasol with a 62 and this week we’re on yet another easier par 72 set up in the South Eastern part of the United States. Svensson has an early afternoon tee time and gives us some exposure to that wave, which really shouldn’t be at a huge disadvantage for conditions given the mostly benign forecast.

Denny McCarthy First Round Leader +4000 | BetMGM

In addition to Svensson, I also don’t mind jumping on one of the non-Sam Burns options at the top of the board this week for first-round leader. While many of the players in this tier have had issues closing out events, a player like Denny McCarthy also gives us massive one-round upside thanks to his putting prowess and course history. McCarthy ranked 16th in first-round scoring on the PGA TOUR last season and had himself a strong opener, posting a 25th place finish at the Fortinet, despite it being a longer par 72 setup. He shot multiple 65s at the Country Club last season and is also available at 40-1, which is nearly double his outright odds at many sportsbooks. With an early Thursday tee time (he tees off in the third group), he gives us good access to that early wave at what I’d consider very solid odds for this market and field.

If looking to make a wager on BetMGM this week, then McCarthy is a first-round leader target to consider at that sportsbook. He has solid 40-1 odds there (bigger odds than other places) and new BetMGM users get a risk-free bet up to $1,000!

Longshots

With another weaker field, we’ll also continue the theme of taking shots in our first-round leader bets with a basket of players with longer odds. You can always use Oddsshopper to check out and compare odds across the major sites.

Adam Schenk first round leader +10000 | BetMGM 

Adam Schenk is coming off a stronger than indicated first start of the season. He didn’t close well but did manage a made cut at the Fortinet, where he gained over 2.0 strokes on approach. Schenk can be a little wild at times off the tee but he’s also a pretty elite iron player when he gets in a groove on his approaches. His overall body of work at the Country Club is encouraging too, as he’s gained over 1.5 strokes putting on the greens in Jackson in each of his last four appearances at this venue. He’s got one of the earliest tee times on Thursday, so if the greens are indeed more receptive, he’ll be able to take advantage.

Patrick Rodgers first round leader +8000 | BetMGM 

This week also feels like a good time to take a shot with Patrick Rodgers in the first-round leader market. His putting was horrendous last week at the Fortinet on his preferred Poa surface, but Rodgers is a player who can spike anywhere on the greens. He’s played this event/venue multiple times prior and has gone as low as 64 at this venue in a prior year. Whenever there are four par 5s in play, Rodgers is usually a good one-round target as he’s extremely efficient on those holes and ranks 11th in overall efficiency on the par 5s over the last 50 rounds of play. With an afternoon tee time, he rounds out a solid four-pack of bets which will give us equal exposure to both sides of the draw.

Featured Articles

Related Articles