The PGA Tour makes its annual October visit to Las Vegas this week with the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin.
Max Homa, who won this season’s opener at the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California, returns after a week off, and Patrick Cantlay makes his 2022-23 debut after two wins and three runners-up last season.
Five members of the OddsShopper and Stokastic staff are here to give you their favorite picks of the week, ranging from outright winners to top-20 placements.
And if DFS is more your thing, head over to our PGA page on Stokastic for projections, ownership and best-in-class simulation tools for all your golf needs.
Ben Rasa’s Pick: Emiliano Grillo +5000 (DraftKings)
Fifth last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship while gaining 5.7 strokes with the irons puts Grillo firmly in this outright-winner card. Somehow, his putter is working, with positive strokes in five straight events, which is extremely atypical for him. If he syncs up the irons and the putting, he will continue to be on the first page of the leaderboard, and at 50-1, I have plenty of interest.
Geoff Ulrich’s Pick: Cam Davis +4000 (DraftKings)
Davis comes into this event off the high of the President’s Cup, where he produced a couple of big wins in the team format. In 2019, multiple International players parlayed their experience in that event into PGA Tour wins shortly afterward, and it would not shock me if the uber-talented Australian resumed that trend. His only win on the Tour came at the lower-scoring Rocket Mortgage last July, and he ranks top-15 in SG: Approach and Birdie or Better Percentage over long- and medium-term form. Considering how well Davis showed against some of the best players in the world two weeks ago, 40-1 in this field feels like a very fair price for an outright bet.
Alex Hunter’s pick: Callum Tarren +550 Top 20 (FanDuel)
Though Tarren has never competed at TPC Summerlin, the 32-year-old is a perfect fit for this scoreable track that requires elite work with your irons and flat stick. Just last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Tarren gained strokes on Approach and on the greens en route to a T13 finish. The Englishman shot under par in his final three rounds and led the field in Strokes Gained on the 400-450-yard par 4’s at the Country Club of Jackson, which certainly bodes well for his debut in Las Vegas. At this desert par-71, six of the 11 par 4’s fall in this range, and two of the last four golfers to win here led their field in SG on the 400-450-yard par 4’s. Following last week, Tarren has four top-20 finishes in his past 10 starts, with three at tracks with bentgrass greens, which is the type of putting surface he will face this week. At this appealing price for a top-20 at FanDuel Sportsbook, easily the longest odds for this bet across the industry when using the OddsShopper tool, Tarren is a terrific investment.
Eric Lindquist’s Pick: Austin Eckroat +20000 (Caesars), +600 Top 20 (FanDuel)
Eckroat is poised to become this season’s Sahith Theegala. The Oklahoma State grad has a tour-ready game he put on display through the first three rounds of the season-opening Fortinet Championship in Napa. Sadly, a final-round 77 blew up our massive top-20 ticket (finished T64), but the number on him hasn’t shifted enough in the aftermath. So it’s right back to the well for me on “EckGOAT,” who’s 2-for-2 on made cuts this season and just needs a decent week with the flat stick, because the ball-striking has certainly been up to snuff.
Eytan Shander’s Pick: Martin Laird +11000 (DraftKings)
It’s a little easier to forget the last two events as missed cuts for Laird if we look at the recent success he’s had. Maybe he was just biding time for his favorite event, at least off his past performances. Laird is a two-time winner at Summerlin (2009, 2020), each coming in a playoff, and lost another in a playoff (2010). It’s a safe assumption that no matter how poorly he’s playing, Laird knows this track well and has a shot to compete. Coming with his strong finishes are incredible performances gaining strokes to the field. He’s fifth on the list of the current field in SG: Total at TPC Summerlin over the past five years.
This is a true long shot by definition, but this course doesn’t demand much. Though it’s going to take a monster week to beat out Homa and Cantlay, that is also true for the remainder of the field. The easier course allows a wider net for mistakes and mitigates a sharper advantage on a tougher course, like longer iron-striking. Laird can easily maneuver his way around the course and the field with his prior knowledge, and at a number over 100-1, it’s certainly worth a shot.
